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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Moises vs. Turner at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Thiago Moises of Brazil and Jalin Turner face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 04, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update: 6:00 p.m. September 5th: This fight is canceled because Thiago Moses has tested positive for Covid-19. Two of his coaches had also previously tested positive.

It’s a pair of lightweights with mixed results in the UFC so far when Thiago Moises and Jalin Turner do battle at UFC on ESPN 9 live from Las Vegas and the Apex facility on Saturday.

Moses is 13-4 as a fighter, 2-2 in the UFC. He has nine stoppage victories in his career, and picked up his first submission in the promotion in his last fight, an Achilles lock on Michael Johnson on May 13th. Averaging just 2.68 strikes per minute, and 1.1 takedowns while in the UFC, at 25 years of age he signed out of Dana White’s Contender Series in August of 2018.

Turner is 9-5 in MMA and is also 2-2 in the UFC. Another DWCS alumni, eight of his nine career wins are by KO or TKO, including a second-round win over Joshua Culibao on February 23rd. He’s a standup specialist with 5.95 significant strikes per minute, and at 25-year-old fights out Adrenaline Combat Sports in San Bernadino, California.

Here are the betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 5th:

Betting splits

Thiago Moises: -175 (11% of action, 67% of bets)
Jalin Turner: +138 (89% of action, 33% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner tonight:

Winning Method Splits

Here are the splits for the method of victory for Thiago Moises vs. Jalin Turner on Saturday:


Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Thiago Moises By Submission +165 39% 23%
Jalin Turner By KO, TKO or DQ +320 36% 68%
Thiago Moises By KO, TKO or DQ +750 23% 2%
Jalin Turner By Submission +1300 1% 1%
Thiago Moises By Decision +350 1% 5%
Jalin Turner By Decision +450 0.1% 1%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Thiago Moises: $9,000
Jalin Turner: $7,200

Moises might be favored on the money line, but his very low activity rates make for bad DFS usage (83 DFS points in his last two wins, 46.9 per fight overall). That leaves the value on Turner at well-below par, which opens you up not only to take some favorites, but also benefit from his 63.8 DFS points in four career UFC fights in a battle he can still very much win.

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