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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Overeem vs. Sakai at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Alistair Overeem of the Netherlands and Augusto Sakai of Brazil face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 04, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The main event of UFC on ESPN 9 tonight is a heavyweight battle when #6 Alistair Overeem takes on #9 Augusto Sakai this Saturday live from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.

The future Hall-of-Famer Overeem is 46-18-1, and has won three of his last four after knocking out Walt Harris on May 16th in Jacksonville. The 40-year-old from the Netherlands averages 3.66 significant strikes per minute and 1.40 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon. His first MMA fight was in October of 1999, and has fought in the UFC alone 18 times.

Sakai is a small underdog with a big heart, and his record of 15-1-1 includes 11 knockouts and no submissions. He’s 4-0 with two stoppages since joining the UFC main roster via a KO win at Dana White’s Contender Series, and his last outing was on May 30th at the Apex, a split decision win over Blagoy Ivanov. With just one career UFC takedown, he averages 5.45 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.89, and defends 83% of takedowns attempted against him.

Here are the betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 5th

Betting splits

Alistair Overeem: -159 (63% of action, 76% of bets)
Augusto Sakai: +130 (37% of action, 24% of bets)

Outcome Splits

Overeem vs. Sakai

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Alistair Overeem By KO, TKO or DQ +150 44% 35%
Alistair Overeem By Decision +400 17% 18%
Augusto Sakai By KO, TKO or DQ +225 15% 25%
Alistair Overeem By Submission +850 13% 14%
Augusto Sakai By Decision +500 11% 6%
Tie +6600 0% 1%
Augusto Sakai By Submission +1800 0% 1%

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Alistair Overeem vs. Augusto Sakai tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Alistair Overeem: $8,800
Augusto Sakai: $7,400

Overeem is about as all-or-nothing as a fighter can get in DFS. He’s got only a 65.2 DFS points average for his career, but in his last three wins he’s averaged just shy of 116 points per outing. If he can get the first-round KO again, he’ll be worth every penny of your salary cap. But if not... well, he scored a total of five points between two fights against Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes.

When Overeem is the chalk, he brings a lot more value. We’ll have him on some rosters tonight.

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