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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Herman vs. Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Ed Herman and Mike Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 10 on ESPN+.

Opponents Ed Herman and Mike Rodriguez face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 11, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Two light heavyweights wanting to separate themselves at 205 pounds face off as veteran Ed Herman takes on Mike Rodriguez at UFC Vegas 10 this Saturday live on ESPN+.

Herman is 25-14 as an MMA fighter and has been on the UFC roster since 2006. “Short Fuse” has 13 submissions and seven KO/TKO’s on his resume, averaging 3.33 strikes per minute and 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes. At age 39, the Gracie Barra fighter out of Portland, Oregon hasn’t competed in 2020 yet, but has won his last two bouts over Patrick Cummins and Khadis Ibragimov.

“Slo Mike” Rodriguez has been picking up the pace here after a first round KO just three weeks ago on August 22nd over Marcin Prachnio. The 32-year-old is 2-2-1 in the UFC and 11-4-1 overall, with all 11 victories coming via stoppage including nine by KO/TKO. The 31-year-old from Boston has averaged 4.59 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, but has yet to execute a takedown of an opponent.

Here are the latest betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Ed Herman vs. Mike Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 12th:

Betting splits

Ed Herman: +205 (16% of action, 21% of bets)
Mike Rodriguez: -265 (84% of action, 79% of bets)

Outcome Splits

Herman vs. Rodriguez Winning Method

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Ed Herman By KO, TKO or DQ +700 79% 9%
Ed Herman By Submission +1100 3% 5%
Mike Rodriguez By Decision +400 1% 9%
Mike Rodriguez By KO, TKO or DQ -134 11% 64%
Mike Rodriguez By Submission +1800 5% 9%
Tie +6600 2% 5%
Ed Herman By Decision +400 0% 0%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Ed Herman: $7,400
Mike Rodriguez: $8,800

Rodriguez has value, as his last two knockouts have averaged 119.5 DFS points and he’s a big favorite here. The style of these fighters lends itself to an early stoppage, but it’s a good enough spot where it’s worth to pay the extra cap value for Slo Mike and hope he can pick up his first UFC performance bonus.

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