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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Valiev vs. Jones at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Timur Valiev vs. Trevin Jones at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Timur Valiev of Russia and Trevin Jones face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

It’s a catchweight fight at the UFC Apex facility on Saturday as a pair of promotion rookies make their debut when Timur Valiev faces Trevin Jones at 140 lbs.

Valiev was originally scheduled to fight Mark Striegl, who pulled out for unknown reasons. Jones steps in as a last-minute replacement, and successfully made weight at 139.5 his second time on the scale.

Valiev is 16-2 from the fighting capital of Dagestan, Russia, and has seven career stoppages. He’s normally a featherweight which is 145 lbs., but got down to 140 here without an issue. He’s won five straight in the Professional Fighting League and Global Fighting Championship, but hasn’t competed since a unanimous decision win over Taigro Costa in December of 2019. After losing his first career bout, he’s won 16 of his last 17 since July of 2011.

Jones takes a short notice fight, and is from Tamuning, Guam. With a 12-6 career record and six finish victories, he hasn’t competed since a May of 2019 rear-naked choke of Takafumi Otsuka in the Japanese promotion Deep. The 30-year-old made his professional debut in April of 2011.

Here are the betting odds and bet splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Timur Valiev vs. Trevin Jones at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 22nd.

Betting splits

Timur Valiev: -560 (93% of action, 78% of bets)
Trevin Jones: +387 (7% of action, 22% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Timur Valiev vs. Trevin Jones tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Timur Valiev: $9,100
Trevin Jones: $7,100

Valiev makes sense as the favorite here due to experience, record, and lack of ring rust. But he doesn’t look like a finisher by his record, and you’re paying a pretty good premium to have him rostered. This might be a stayaway unless you know about the quality of Jones in a way we can’t establish. Probably the most difficult fight to handicap on a card with a real lack of information on the prelims.

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