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UPDATE 2:50 pm: Below we’ve added bet splits for the method of victory for Prachino vs. Rodriguez tonight.
To be honest, it’s a pretty weak fight for a main card at light middleweight at UFC on ESPN this evening when Marcin Prachnio takes on Mike Rodriguez live from Las Vegas and UFC Fight Night
Prachnio is 13-4 as a cagefighter, but 0-2 in the UFC where he’s been stopped in the first round twice by Sam Alvey and Magomed Ankalaev. The 32-year-old from Poland hasn’t fought since September of 2018, and might need a win to stay a part of the promotion. He’s landed a total of 18 strikes with zero takedowns in his 7:32 of UFC octagon time. And he’s a reasonable underdog to...
Rodriguez who is 10-4-1 with a 1-2-1 mark in the UFC. The no contest was a loss to John Allan overturned by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for a doping violation. In his last outing in Korea in December, he was stopped in 64 seconds by Da-Un Jung. “Slo Mike” (yes, that’s his listed nickname) has landed 4.30 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, and is yet to attempt a takedown. But all 10 of his career wins are finishes, with eight KO’s and two submissions.
Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Marcin Prachnio vs. Mike Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 22nd.
Betting splits
Marcin Prachnio: +188 (61% of action, 57% of bets)
Mike Rodriguez: -240 (39% of action, 43% of bets)
Method of Victory
Prachnio vs. Rodriguez Method of Victory
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
| Mike Rodriguez By KO, TKO or DQ | -134 | 77% | 14% |
| Marcin Prachnio By KO, TKO or DQ | +450 | 22% | 86% |
| Mike Rodriguez By Submission | +1400 | < 1% | < 1% |
| Marcin Prachnio By Submission | +1600 | < 1% | < 1% |
| Mike Rodriguez By Decision | +500 | < 1% | < 1% |
| Marcin Prachnio By Decision | +450 | 0% | 0% |
| Tie | +6600 | 0% | 0% |
Marcin Prachnio: $7,300
Mike Rodriguez: $8,900
The action on Prachino shows that the stats don’t necessarily line up with his quality as a fighter. His UFC losses are to two very good fighters in Sam Alvey and Magomed Ankalaev, and that’s what the handicappers are seeing. But for someone that hasn’t been in the octagon for almost two years, it’s a lot to take an underdog here. And Rodriguez has outstanding power, but got insta-stopped his last time out and the no contest was basically a loss.
There might be a solid an angle here, but the prices seem quite fair to us so we’re staying away from this one.
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