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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Munhoz vs. Edgar at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Frankie Edgar vs. Pedro Munhoz at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Pedro Munhoz of Brazil and Frankie Edgar face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UPDATE 2:50 pm: Below we’ve added bet splits for the method of victory for Munhoz vs. Edgar tonight.

The main event of UFC on ESPN in Las Vegas on Saturday night features two Top-10 bantamweights in Pedro Munhoz and Frankie Edgar in a five-round battle from the UFC Apex facility and live on ESPN+.

Edgar is the former UFC lightweight champion from 2010-12, holding a is 23-8-1 MMA record. He held the belt at 155 lbs., since he lost it has been competing at 145, and drops to 135 for the first time here. Even though he’s never fought at this weight he enters ranked #8 in the division. At age 38 and fighting out of Toms River, New Jersey, he lost his only two fights in 2019: A unanimous decision loss to Max Holloway for the featherweight title, and a first-round KO by Chan Sung Jung also at featherweight.

Munhoz is a big favorite since this fight is at 135, and ranked #5 at bantamweight. “The Young Punisher” is 18-4-1 with a UFC mark of 8-4-1, and he’s very active in the octagon: He averages 5.29 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.17 as well. With 13 career stoppages (five KO’s, eight submissions) and having never been finished himself, the Sao Paolo, Brazil native won three in a row before falling to Aljamain Sterling in June of last year.

Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 23rd.

Betting splits

Pedro Munhoz: -278 (47% of action, 58% of bets)
Frankie Edgar: +225 (53% of action, 42% of bets)

Method of Victory

Munoz-Edgar Method of Victory

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Pedro Munhoz By KO, TKO or DQ +138 60% 59%
Frankie Edgar By Decision +300 23% 15%
Frankie Edgar By KO, TKO or DQ +750 8% 10%
Pedro Munhoz By Decision +333 4% 8%
Pedro Munhoz By Submission +450 3% 4%
Frankie Edgar By Submission +1600 2% 3%
Tie +6600 < 1% 1%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Pedro Munhoz: $9,000
Frankie Edgar: $7,200

Munhoz is a strong DFS play just because of his activity. Especially in a five-round fight against an opponent that isn’t stopped easily, the workrate of Munhoz should help him get close to his 83.3 DFS average pretty quickly, and that’s before a decision is rendered. If he’s able to wear down the bigger man that’s competing smaller with his speed, it could make for a long fight with lots of sustained offense.

Munhoz has averaged 122 DFS points in his last three wins. He’s worth the price being laid here in a five-round fight.

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