What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Aspinall vs. Collier at UFC Fight Night

Update 4:30 p.m.: The line for this fight has moved significantly towards the Englishman Aspinall in his UFC debut.

Tom Aspinall: Opened -225, now -278 (92% of handle, 88% of bets)
Jake Collier: Opened +175, now +220 (8% of handle, 12% of bets)

The second of two heavyweight preliminary fights at UFC on ESPN 14 is Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier, live from Fight Island on Abu Dhabi. This fight was to take place at UFC London, but has been sent to the United Arab Emirates due to Covid-19.

Aspinall is 7-2 in MMA with all seven wins coming via stoppage, and was 2-0 in the Cage Warriors promotion before making his his UFC debut with this fight. The man from Wigan near Manchester, England looks like he’s got a pretty heavy right hand, and is the odds-on favorite against a UFC veteran in this fight.

Collier defeated Marcel Fortuna in November of 2017, and hasn’t fought since. An injury forced him to pull out of his next scheduled fight, then USADA popped him for a drug violation and a 10-month suspension from a drug sample taken in December of 2018. He’s 3-3 in the UFC, and 11-4 overall in MMA with eight stoppages. He lands 4.15 strikes per round in the black octagon, and returns to the cage at 31 years of age.

Here are the latest betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 25th:

Money line odds with betting splits

Tom Aspinall: -225 (86% of handle, 84% of bets)
Jake Collier: +175 (14% of handle, 16% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Tom Aspinall vs. Jake Collier tonight:

Tom Aspinall: $8,800
Jake Collier: $7,400

So a fighter that might not have ever competed clean in the past takes on a UFC newcomer. Good times for handicappers! Collier did score 87 points in his last decision win in 2017, but has averaged only 53.9 DFS points in his UFC career.

Aspinall seems to have plenty of knockout power, so if there’s a side to have that’s likely it. It’s a bit easier to bet on a fighter that’s had success in a better promotion, and he got that in Cage Fighters. The Englishman should crack some of your rosters this evening.

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