clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NBA Betting Systems: Trending Basketball Picks, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings Network analyst Nick Friar utilizes the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub to search for potential NBA plays over the next week based on betting systems that have stood out recently.

NBA: Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

On Monday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Friday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.

Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays have performed since Monday, as well as the systems on the whole.

The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.

One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.

SYSTEM: Road underdogs after not playing the previous day

There has been a serious surge in this system recently. Throughout the season, this system has only gone 189-181-7. However, it did have a strong start to the season before experiencing a serious dip in December, as seen in this season-long table below. It’s experienced a few spikes since, and the recent 16-9 stretch over the last seven days is the play’s latest.


System - 5-5

My Picks - 0-1


Three games from Friday’s slate fit in this system:

  • HOU @ TOR
  • WAS @ BOS
  • CHA @ MIL

Typically, backing a dog at double digits isn’t my style — especially when we’re flirting with a 20-point spread. But, the Wizards are very good at covering as road dogs, entering Friday’s slate 15-9-1 ATS in this setting. Furthermore, they’d be 18-7 ATS in this setting if they were playing with a 17-point spread in each of those 25 instances.

On top of all that, the Celtics would be 7-18-2 ATS if they were playing as 17-point favorites in every home game that they were favored this season. Against the actual spread that have been set, Boston is a coin flip as a home favorite (14-13).


SYSTEM: Under on Total when favorite is coming off a win

This play is 223-205-7 to the under on the season, so it’s been just under break-even. It’s at that level primarily because of how strong it’s been over the last month of games. Over the last 30 days, the system is 80-53-1. In the last seven days, it’s gone 21-13, which is a slightly better rate than the month-long trend, but it’s still in the same ballpark. So, this system has been working well for a bit.


System - 10-11

My Picks - 0-1


Three games from Friday’s slate fit in in this system:

  • TOR vs. HOU
  • BOS vs. WAS
  • NOP @ LAL

The Pelicans haven’t been a great fit for this play throughout 2023-24, allowing the over to hit in 5 of the 8 games where this system was in play and they were the favorite. However, on top of the general system still being appealing, there’s something at play with the Lakers that has me liking the under in this game. When the Lakers are playing as a home underdog, the under is 5-1.

PICK: NOP-LAL under 233.5

Watch The Sweat LIVE Saturdays and Sundays from 8 a.m. ET to 10 a.m. ET on DraftKings Network or by subscribing to the DraftKings YouTube Channel!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.

The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.