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All season long, one of the best system plays was taking the under when an AFC team was favored against an NFC team. We almost had that in the Super Bowl, but no dice.
However, the under still hit 53.1% of the time when an NFC team was favored vs. an AFC team this season (17-15). Not enough to make this my definitive pick, but this is where I started things.
After getting a larger, system outlook, I looked at their individual performances against the total this season. Kansas City has been heavy to the under (14-6). San Francisco went in the other direction at a good rate (11-8 to the over), though not as drastically as KC. This postseason, San Fran has hit the over once and the under once. KC is 2-1 to the under in the playoffs; the Chiefs have also gone 3-1 to the under when playing as a dog this season.
Last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl the under hit. The Chiefs went on to follow that up with an under hit in the following Super Bowl before Patrick Mahomes and company finally saw the over hit for the first time in the big game. That was also the first time Andy Reid has seen the over hit in what was his fourth Super Bowl appearance.
Pick: Game Total Under 47.5 points
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.