Derrick White over 14.5 points -135
White has seen the under hit in back-to-back games, which shouldn’t come as a major shock. Since the calendar flipped over, he’s 8-9 to the over against his points prop. That’s brought his season-long record to the over against his points prop to 26-20. He’s also 26-20 against this specific point total.
Despite his up-and-down scoring output to start the 2024 portion of the schedule, this is an appealing spot for White. He’s going up against a Hawks team that he scored over 15 points against in four of six playoff games last season. On top of that, he scored exactly 15 against them when these two teams met earlier in the season.
Combine all of that with White still being far from Atlanta’s top priority on defense and the fact this is White’s chance to prove he deserved the All-Star nod that Trae Young received, and I can’t help but think the Boston guard is going to clear this number easily vs. Atlanta.
Total over 227 points -108
Neither Miami nor San Antonio has been in this setting often, but there’s a system at play for this game that makes the over very appealing. The over is 38-23 (62.30%) when a home favorite is on the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
The Spurs are 2-1 to the over when they’re the underdog in this setting, and Miami is only 1-0 as the favorite in this setting. Not much to go by there, but this will be the 10th time San Antonio is facing an opponent on the second leg of a back-to-back this season. In the prior nine games, the over is 6-2-1.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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