The big game is finally here, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are set to take on Mr. Irrelevant and the 49ers on Sunday in Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII. There is potential history in the making for both teams, as Mahomes can join an elite group of quarterbacks who have won three or more Super Bowls. Only four players have achieved that feat so far, and they are Tom Brady, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman. Brock Purdy will already be the first Mr. Irrelevant to take a snap at quarterback in the big game and will make the feat incredibly hard to match if he was to become the first Mr. Irrelevant to quarterback a team to a Super Bowl win. Either way, we are set up for what should be a thrilling game. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the 49ers are considered two-point favorites and the Over/Under is set at 47.5. Below are my favorite game prop bets for the big game.
This is my favorite game prop bet for Super Bowl Sunday for a handful of reasons. All the media attention this week will be on the offensive stars for both teams, but people forget these are the second and third-best scoring defenses in football. Baltimore led the way with the #1 scoring defense, but Kansas City (16.8 points per game) were second and San Francisco (18.4 points per game) were third. In both respective playoff runs, only San Francisco has let up thirty points in a game, allowing 31 to the Lions after an awful defensive start. I think both of these defenses are too good to allow 30 points, despite the great players they’ll face on the other side of the ball. With the total set at 47.5, the sportsbooks are not exactly expecting a shootout, and neither am I. This game should be similar to the defensive battle we saw in the AFC Championship, which featured the best and second-best scoring defenses. I expect these offenses to still put up points, but I don’t see either team having a field day either.
Both teams have scored a rushing touchdown in every playoff game during this run, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. The 49ers have scored five rushing touchdowns in their two postseason games, while Isiah Pacheco has found paydirt once in all three of the Chiefs’ postseason wins. As we all know, Christian McCaffrey is a threat to go the distance on any play, while Isiah Pacheco is now into double-digit rushing touchdowns this season with 10. Although I don’t expect this game to be a shootout by any stretch of the imagination, I expect both teams to score a couple of times and I think the streak of scoring on the ground will continue for both squads on Sunday.
With a spread of only two points, it’s hard to see either team running away with this one. Although they blew out Miami in the first round, in the Chiefs’ last two games against the Bills and Ravens, this hasn’t come close to hitting on the yes side. I expect this game to be a closely contested game just like those were. The 49ers scored five unanswered times in the NFC Championship, but I will take that with a grain of salt because of the wild momentum shifts in that particular game. Against Green Bay in the Divisional Round, the correct answer also would’ve been no. I think these teams are so evenly matched that both defenses will find a way to keep getting off the field, which should make for a closely contested back-and-forth game.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.