As you might be aware, there’s this thing called “the Super Bowl” that’s happening this weekend. It’s a pretty big deal. As such, the DraftKings Sportsbook has rolled out all the stops, with hundreds and hundreds of props for the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
In this article, we’ll be specifically focusing on player props for the Chiefs. Sadly, you’ll have to go elsewhere for your Taylor Swift novelty bets.
Let’s start with something simple and easy. Pacheco has been an absolute workhorse for the Chiefs in the playoffs, logging at least a 70% snap share in all three games. It’s a span where the sophomore is not only averaging 21.0 carries per contest, but seeing an impressive 82.9% of Kansas City’s rushing attempts — which includes a pair of carries from Mecole Hardman and one from Travis Kelce in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens. Heck, if you want to get even more granular, Pacheco has registered 39 rushing attempts in the Chiefs past two contests. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has seen the next highest amount among Kansas City running backs with three. Basically, if Andy Reid plans on running the ball this Sunday, it’s going to be with Pacheco. There’s no committee to worry about.
Of course, on paper, this is not the easiest matchup in the world. San Francisco has been stout versus the run all season, so much so that opponents owned a league-low 36.4% rush rate when facing the 49ers. However, recent games have shown that this defense isn’t perfect. San Francisco has surrendered 142.3 rushing yards per contest in its last three, which includes giving up a whopping 182 yards on the ground to Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. In what should be a close script, I see no reason why the Chiefs would be forced to abandon a balanced offensive game plan. Expect to see Pacheco heavily involved.
Alternate Receiving Yards
I wouldn’t be completely opposed to doing a ladder with Kelce, going even as high as 114.5 receiving yards at +500 odds. While there were some concerns that maybe the 34-year-old was on the decline — Kelce failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards during the regular season for the first time since 2015 — the future Hall of Fame tight end has flipped the switch so far in the playoffs, with 23 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns. Not surprisingly, all of those figures represent team-highs for the Chiefs, as do Kelce’s 27 targets.
So, we know volume won’t be an issue for Kelce. However, the 49ers employ possibly the best tandem of coverage linebackers in football: Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. In theory, they should be better equipped to control Kelce than most other teams in the league. Yet, for some reason, San Francisco has had its issues with opposing TEs all year long. During the regular season, the 49ers conceded the eighth-most targets per game (7.4) and the 10th-most receptions per game (5.2) to the position. In the playoffs? Green Bay tight ends racked up 11 targets in the Divisional Round, while Sam LaPorta turned 13 targets into nine catches and 97 yards in the Conference Championship. There’s a clear area of weakness here. I’d be shocked if Kelce can’t exploit it.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Rice was a touchdown machine at SMU in his final two years of college, scoring a combined 19 times in his junior and senior campaigns. The 6’2 wideout was then selected in the second-round by the Chiefs, where he’s yet to stop finding the end zone. Rice scored seven touchdowns in his rookie season, with an eighth coming in the Wild Card round against the Dolphins. Rice was actually Patrick Mahomes’ most-targeted player inside the red zone during the regular season — not Travis Kelce. In fact, among AFC skill-position assets, only Davante Adams, Calvin Ridley and Tyreek Hill saw more targets inside the 20-yard line than Rice’s 22.
But why stop at one? This is the Super Bowl after all. We’re all about needless excess. Rice is listed at +850 to score two touchdowns on Sunday. Though he did not manage to accomplish the feat during his rookie campaign, Rice did see multiple red zone targets in the same game seven times throughout the regular season, including four of the final five games he played. All I’m saying is, it’s worth a sprinkle. Heck, if you think there’s a chance that Rice could find the end zone twice, it might be worth taking a look at his +5000 MVP odds, too.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.