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NFL Best Bets: Top Same Game Parlay Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Super Bowl LVIII

Geoff Ulrich shares his favorite same game parlays for Super Bowl LVIII.

NFC Championship - Detroit Lions v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

Before we dive into the big game and set up our Same Game Parlays (SGPs), let’s look at how these two teams shape up and what kind of tendencies they both have.

San Francisco 49ers:

Offense

  • 3rd in run rate
  • 1st in yards per attempt

Defense

  • 24th in success rate against the run
  • 7th in success rate against the pass
  • 17th in pressure rate

Kansas City Chiefs:

Offense

  • 26th in run rate
  • 20th in yards per attempt

Defense

  • 15th in success rate against the run
  • 2nd in success rate against the pass
  • 2nd in pressure rate

In the 49ers, we have an explosive passing game combined with a team that loves to run the ball — and does so efficiently. However, the 49ers have been exploited on defense by the run themselves and their pressure rate has fallen off as the season has progressed.

In the Chiefs, we have a team that gets really good pressure and is extremely lock down against the pass but doesn’t necessarily have the greatest rush defense.

Below, I’ve put together two same-game parlays that work off these tendencies and hopefully lead to a couple of cashes this Sunday. Good Luck!


Super Bowl LVIII — Same Game Parlay #1 (4 picks at +800)

  • Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD
  • Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 Pass Attempts
  • Christian McCaffrey Under 128.5 Rush + Rec Yards
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 1.5 Receptions

Our first SGP plays directly into the strengths of the 49ers and their best offensive player. Christian McCaffrey is clearly in a good spot this week. The Chiefs not only struggle to defend the run at times but they also struggle against zone run schemes, which the 49ers employ a ton of on offense.

Taking McCaffrey to score a TD is almost a no-brainer at this point. While his anytime TD odds are low they are also extremely bettable at anything above -300. He’s scored in 15/18 games this year (83% hit rate) and even at -300 we’re being given just a 75% implied probability of another TD occuring. On DraftKings, the odds are still much bigger than this (-210 as of writing) making it a nice starting point for our SGP. I also don’t mind combining McCaffrey’s under on his total yards (rush + rec) with this TD bet. McCaffrey’s red zone usage is elite but the Chiefs are also great at limiting the touches of their opponents' RBs. Only twice on the season has an RB gone over this 128.5-yard total against them (James Cook in Week 14 and Zamir White in Week 16)

Of course, if we like McCaffrey to score, taking it a step further and pegging Patrick Mahomes to go over on his pass attempts correlates nicely. If McCaffrey finds the endzone then of course it gives us a better chance at a closer game which means more dropbacks for Mahomes. Teams facing the 49ers threw the ball an average of 36.6 times per game this year (third highest in the league) and the Chiefs already trend more toward the pass (as mentioned above).

Adding a Chiefs receiver prop along with the over on Mahomes makes sense as well. If we’re expecting him to drop back 37+ times then a couple of his receivers will prosper as a result. Marquez Valdes-Scantling posted a 96% route rate in the Conference Championship game and is playing more snaps than any Chiefs WR not named Rashee Rice. With the 49ers pressure rate falling off Mahomes should have time to look for him more downfield this week.


Super Bowl LVIII — Same Game Parlay #2 (4 picks at +1000)

  • Brock Purdy To Throw an INT
  • Brandon Aiyuk Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
  • Deebo Samuel Under 79.5 Rush + Rec Yards
  • Isiah Pacheco Over 65.5 Rushing Yards

Another outcome I could see coming to fruition regarding how the Chiefs' offense operates this Sunday is for Isiah Pachaco to hit on all of his overs. The 49ers have been gashed in both of their playoff games to date and Pacheco is slated to take nearly 100% of the early down carry work in this game. There is always the chance the 49ers have a little more success stopping the Chiefs — or that their offense forces the Chiefs to pass more — but certainly, with the way the Chiefs have started games to date in these playoffs, Pacheco feels like a player in a great position to hit the overs on his rush and carry props.

If Pacheco does have a big day then it also likely means that Brock Purdy is being forced to drop back more. The Chiefs' defense has come up with an INT in each of their first three playoff games and Purdy has been less efficient in these playoffs (under 65% completion rate in both games), overall, and threw a pick last week against the Lions. Given how well the Chiefs get pressure, Purdy throwing another INT — in a game where he’s likely behind late because Pacheco running the ball well — isn’t that outlandish.

I also like combining these first two props with a Brandon Aiyuk over (rec yards) and a Deebo Samuel under (rush + rec yards). Samuel’s rushing usage hasn’t been that stellar towards the back half of the year and this number does seem somewhat inflated. Additionally, Aiyuk has been the player who has excelled more against man coverage, something the Chiefs tend to employ a lot of on defense. In three of the last four games that Aiyuk has gone for 100+ yards, Samuel has gone under this bigger 79.5 number.


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.