You know what time it is. It’s Super Bowl season and we have a Super Bowl LIV rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. The stage is set in Las Vegas, the Patrick Mahomes underdog narrative is in full effect, the Swifties will be tuning in and Taylor Swift just announced a new album — it’s about to go down.
Here are a few player props for the 49ers that stood out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brock Purdy Over 3.5 Rush Attempts (+120)
I’m aware that the entire population is all over Purdy to throw an interception at -120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and that’s nice and all and I probably agree because the 49ers may be playing from behind but let’s talk about his rushing ability, particularly in both postseason games. He has easily cleared this line both times, totaling six carries against Green Bay in the Divisional Round and five carries against Detroit in the NFC Championship.
Kansas City’s defense has been stingy all season but particularly this postseason — holding both Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to less than 200 passing yards and Lamar Jackson and the high-powered Ravens offense to just 10 points. The 49ers offense is certainly full of weapons and able to run up the score but I’m expecting the Chiefs secondary and pass rush to play well enough to force Purdy to use his legs often. During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the third-most QB rush attempts to opposing quarterbacks (91) and let both Allen and Jackson total 12 and eight carries, respectively. Purdy is no elite dual-threat QB like the other two mentioned but he’s shown off the wheels enough for me to take this at plus odds.
Christian McCaffrey Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The game script could very well be negative for San Francisco, resulting in more passing plays but I can’t see that happening considering how competitive Super Bowl LIV was and the fact that the 49ers have a guy named Christian McCaffrey, who I’m expecting to be heavily involved on the ground. He has dealt with multiple injuries over the last few weeks but has still logged at least 92 percent of snaps and totaled at least 128 scrimmage yards in both postseason games.
Set at 90.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, this feels like a steal. McCaffrey has totaled at least 90 rushing yards in both postseason games and has a prime matchup to get the job done again on the ground. While the Chiefs’ defense has been stout in nearly all aspects, the run game has been poor and can easily be exploited. Opposing teams have made it a point to run against Kansas City and hey, it’s worked so why not? Kansas City ranks 28th in rushing EPA but third in dropback EPA, suggesting this could very well be a huge McCaffrey game in which Kyle Shanahan chooses to go with the conservative game plan. I also like the idea of pivoting to McCaffrey’s rushing and receiving yard line for those who are worried about the game script but it’s hard to ignore this clear mismatch and even harder to fade such an important player in such an important game.
George Kittle Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Don’t worry, Kittle burned me against the Lions, too, when he finished with just two catches for 27 yards. Considering he posted that stat line against the Lions, who allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends during the regular season (940), and now faces a Chiefs defense that allowed the 10th-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends (759), I’d understand the hesitation but this feels like a solid value play. Kittle has cleared this line in 10 of the last 15 games and could be relied on more than usual if the 49ers’ wideouts aren’t creating proper separation from the Chiefs’ stout cornerbacks.
I’m expecting L’Jarius Sneed to shadow Brandon Aiyuk for the majority of the game and Deebo Samuel could see plenty of work in the running and short-pass game but is still banged up. If Kansas City’s defense plays near-perfect like usual and limits where Purdy can throw the ball, Kittle will be forced to work his magic in the middle of the field and find the opening. Plus, he led all tight ends in 20+ yard receptions this season (18) — all he needs is two or three receptions and we’re likely cashing.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is huntersk) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.