One more football game left in the season, as the 49ers and Chiefs clash in the Super Bowl once again. It was a memorable one four years ago, with the Chiefs storming back in the first Super Bowl win for Patrick Mahomes. This time around the stage is set for a classic in Las Vegas. Here’s what stands out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs +2.5 (-115) — 3-units
Hey, have you guys heard that Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog? Yes, I have too. And I don’t care anymore. But there are plenty of things in this game that I do care about, and all of them are advantages for Kansas City.
First of all, NFL games are priced off power ratings. The Niners rate higher than the Chiefs, and with more impressive weapons like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, I understand why their roster ranks higher. While I don’t care about Mahomes historically as a dog, I do care that this team just won consecutive games as the lower rated team. It shows that the market very well could be down on Kansas City’s roster, particularly outside of the quarterback position.
When we look at the matchup on the field, I can’t ignore all the advantages on the Chiefs’ sideline. The talent and experience gap at QB is the glaring one, but I’d also give edges to Kansas City on defense, at head coach, and in special teams — particularly at kicker.
If we go through the game scripts, I feel like most of them favor the Chiefs. If Kansas City comes out hot, I like their running game with Isaiah Pacheco, and don’t trust Brock Purdy to lead a third straight comeback against the toughest defense he’ll have faced this postseason. And Mahomes won’t blow the game with a silly turnover.
If the game is tight, I obviously trust the Chiefs to make the plays. Prior to these last two comebacks, we know Kyle Shanahan’s history in big games. Not to mention, we’re taking points over moneyline here, which leaves some margin to still cover on a failed two-point conversion or something like that if the close game script comes to life.
Then there’s also the script of the Niners jumping out on top, which is a bit tougher, particularly with CMC running the ball. But if there’s one person you want under center for a comeback like this it’s Mahomes — and we’ve seen the Niners get shredded on defense in this postseason.
Betting the Super Bowl in my mind isn’t as much about the numbers as it is the matchup, and I feel this is a big matchup advantage for KC — who is 6-1 ATS in its last seven matchups against the Niners. If you want another interesting trend historically, the last 19 times that two teams face off in the Super Bowl and are not the same seed (which is the case here with SF No. 1 in the NFC and KC No. 3 in the AFC), the lower seeded team is 15-2-2 ATS. Easily could mean nothing in this game, but speaks to the perception of the “better team” in this game.
More experience, more advantages and more paths to victory have me taking the points and backing the Chiefs in Vegas.
Super public prop here betting an over on Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, but Kelce’s postseason dominance cannot be ignored. Mahomes and Kelce recently passed Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski as the duo with the most postseason touchdown connections of all-time, and the chemistry was obvious in the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore. Kelce reeled in all 11 of his targets in that one for 116 yards – including some improvised plays on the field that just cannot be stopped. Kelce has now topped 70 receiving yards in 12 consecutive postseason games, a span in which he averages 98.2 yards per game. Sam LaPorta was the leading receiving for Detroit in the NFC Championship game, putting up a 9-97-0 line against the San Fran defense.
Pacheco has been a battering ram in the postseason, going over this number in all three games so far — averaging 84.7 rushing yards. Now he’ll face a Niners defense that’s been all bark and no bite in the postseason – surrendering 159 rushing yards per game against the Packers and Lions at home. In those matchups, the lead backs for the opposing teams easily cleared this number, with Aaron Jones ripping off 108 yards on 18 carries, and David Montgomery pounding it 15 times for 93 yards (with Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams combining for another 87 rushing yards on 13 carries).
Plenty of urgency in the postseason, along with Mahomes operating with the worst WR room of his career should lead to more scrambling. He’s 2-1 to the over on this prop in this postseason, with a narrow miss against Baltimore – long carry of 11 yards. Mahomes is 9-6 to the over on this number since the 2020 postseason. Why go longest rush over total rushing yards? You may recall the last Super Bowl between these two teams when Mahomes went well over his rushing prop, but lost about 15 yards on late-game kneel downs to ultimately cash his under in one of the worst bad beats in Super Bowl prop betting history.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.