On Monday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Friday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.
Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays have performed since Monday, as well as the systems on the whole.
The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Over on total when home team is on second leg of a back-to-back
We had a slightly more concentrated version of this play last week, but that only allowed us to play the system twice because it was a favorite-based system. By expanding things, we can get more exposure to trending play.
The over is 7-4 (63.64%) over the last seven days. Despite this, the play is only 15-20-1 over the last 30 days. But, I have no problem buying into the recent hot streak because this play has hit over 55% of the time this season (60-45-3).
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 29
System - 2-3
My Picks - 0-1
SYSTEM PICK FOR FEBRUARY 2
Two games fit this system on Friday’s slate:
- IND vs. SAC
- MEM vs. GSW
With IND-SAC having a total of 248.5, it’s a bit easier to look toward the other option on this slate. However, IND is 4-1 to the over in this setting. SAC is only 2-5 to the over when they’re on the other side of this system, but those seven games have averaged totals of 239. A notable jump from Friday’s total, so we may be better off teasing that rather than playing it straight up. Even then, these two met recently with Tyrese Haliburton out (and I expect he’ll be out again on Friday), and they combined for 247 points. The over is playable, but it’s not my preferred play.
That title belongs to MEM-GSW. The Grizzlies may be 0-4 to the over in this setting, but they’re an underdog on the second leg of a back-to-back in a Western Conference game. The over is 26-15-1 when that system is in play.
PICK: MEM-GSW over 224.5
SYSTEM: West underdogs ATS vs. East
This system has not only taken off in the last week, but it’s been going strong for over a month now.
Throughout the last seven days, this play is 8-3 (72.73%). That’s brought the system up to 28-18 (28-18) over the last 30 days and a decent 52-46 (53.06%) on the season.
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 29
System - 6-5
My Picks - 1-0
SYSTEM PICK FOR FEBRUARY 3
No games on Friday’s slate fit this system, so let’s look ahead to potential fits for Saturday.
There are five non-conference games slated for that day:
The first two probably won’t feature a West underdog, so I’m focusing on the other three. Against the West as the favorite, the Knicks are 6-3 ATS, the Cavs are 4-7 ATS and Milwaukee is 3-8 ATS. Against the East as the underdog, the Lakers are 3-3 ATS, San Antonio is 8-10 ATS and Dallas is 3-2 ATS. Off of those numbers alone, the edge for preferred play could easily go to Dallas. But I don’t love backing the Mavs in general, especially with Luka Doncic having just missed the last game.
Instead, my lean is toward San Antonio, who played the Cavs close last time in a 117-115 loss. On top of how things went last time these two teams met, Cleveland is coming off a win. When the Cavs are a favorite against the West after a win, they’re 2-6 ATS.
PICK: SA ATS
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.