The final week of the regular season is here. It is bittersweet, as we will miss our seven hours of NFL football every Sunday, but at the same time, we can look forward to the playoffs and Super Bowl, which are just around the corner. There are many teams who have already clinched their playoff seed and are resting starters this weekend, so it is important to remember that when wagering. With that being said, let’s take a look at my favorite prop bets one last time this regular season on DraftKings Sportsbook.
WR Stefon Diggs Over 61.5 Rec Yds (-110)
The Bills playoff hopes are still up in the air, and the result against the Dolphins on Sunday is critical for their seeding. If they win, they will clinch the AFC East division and the #2 seed. If they lose, they could still make the playoffs, but there’s a scenario depending on other results that could see them out of the playoffs altogether. With all that being said, I am a firm believer that with the season on the line, Josh Allen is going to put his faith in Diggs this Sunday. Diggs has had a December to forget, going under this total in all four of his games and scoring 0 touchdowns. However, he had his best game of the season earlier in the year against Miami, going for 120 yards and three touchdowns. With Jalen Ramsey back in the fold for the Dolphins this time around, it won’t be as easy, but I think Josh Allen will give his best receiver every opportunity he can to help Buffalo win a crucial game.
RB Jaylen Warren Over 21.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Warren has been a check-down favorite in recent weeks, as in each of his last four games, he has hit the total on this number and had four receptions. The Ravens' defense won’t be playing all of their starters, but they should still be a handful for this Steelers offense, which makes Warren a great check-down option. Overall this season, he has hit this total nine times. If he continues to get the amount of targets he has in recent weeks, I think this will be a comfortable hit. Over the last month, he’s averaging 5.25 targets per game. The Steelers are still very motivated this weekend, as they need a win and some help in other games to book a playoff spot.
QB Justin Fields Over 258.5 Pass+Rush Yds (-115)
This is Fields’ last chance to leave an impression on the Bears staff before the 2024 NFL Draft, where Chicago will pick #1 overall thanks to owning the Panthers’ first-round pick. Former USC quarterback and Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams is expected to declare for the draft and be the first player selected. Fields has been playing the best football of his career lately, and it has started to spark a real discussion on what the Bears should do. Fields will surely be aware of the situation the franchise is in, and I think he will put on a show this Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Bears will also be looking for their first win over the Packers since 2018, even more motivation for Fields to have a great game. In Week 1 when these teams matched up, Fields cashed the over on this prop and he’s also hit the over on this number in five of his last six games.
NY Jets Under 1.5 Team TD’s (-160)
The game between the Jets and Patriots this weekend is meaningless for everything other than draft position, but there is still money to be made. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have had an awful season, yet they still beat the Jets earlier this year in a game where New York only scored one touchdown. The Jets have not beaten the Patriots since 2015, and I do not expect that to change this Sunday in Foxborough. In their last 10 games, New York has only scored multiple touchdowns on four occasions. In two of those games, they relied on a defensive touchdown to hit the over. The Jets offense has traditionally struggled against New England, and I expect this weekend to be the same.
RB Derrick Henry Under 48.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Derrick Henry went under his total last week for us, and I am going back to the well this Sunday. The Titans have been eliminated for weeks, while the Jaguars are playing for the AFC South crown this weekend. Henry has struggled recently, going under this total in three of his last four games. Things are not going to get any easier for him, as the Jaguars rank eighth in the NFL against the rush and will likely look to force Ryan Tannehill to beat them with his arm. Henry has not been his usual self this season, as his yards per carry is the worst of his career. I think this trend continues Sunday as the Jaguars and other teams try to force Tennessee to beat them through the air.
RB James Cook Under 62.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Cook has cooled down in his two games following his breakout game against the Cowboys, putting up 70 and 48 rush yards, respectively. He will now face a Dolphins defense that is the best-rushing defense at home in the NFL. Nobody gives up fewer rush yards at home than Miami, who only concede 72.3 yards per game compared to 118 on the road. They are still an excellent run defense overall, ranking #7 in the league. Cook has gone under this total in 50% of his games this year, and in road games, he’s been under this total five out of seven times.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.