It’s been an amazing college football season, but it comes to an end on Monday night. We have a pair of 14-0 teams meeting in Houston for the National Championship, with Washington the underdog to Michigan. Here’s how I’m betting this one on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Washington vs. Michigan (January 8, 7:30pm ET)
Washington Team Total OVER 24.5 (-110) — 2-units
Can find full analysis on the Unreasonable Odds podcast.
Michigan is shaping up to be the contrarian favorite for the second week in a row. I tend to lean to Washington in this game, or at least subscribe to the thought that this game should be closer to a field goal when it comes to the spread.
The Huskies have been thriving in the underdog role, particularly in these last two games — outright wins on neutral in-door venues against higher power rated teams. But I’m going to pass on the spread and just look to back Washington to do what they do best — put up points.
The Wolverines will be the best defense Washington has faced this season, but I think going up against the likes of an Oregon defense is somewhat of a representation, whereas Michigan hasn’t played an offense close to as elite as this one. Michael Penix Jr. and company have been delivering in these in-door neutral venues, putting up 34 points on the Ducks and then 37 on the Longhorns.
Most of Washington’s down spots offensively this season were either in terrible conditions or when Penix was dinged up — or both. Michigan is going to have to allow a season-high in points here, but this isn’t the Big Ten.
The Wolverines allowed 24 to Maryland this season, and then 24 at home to Ohio State — and that was with two turnovers from the Buckeyes and driving late to try and win the game. Obviously, both of those games were outdoors and late in the season. This is going to be a totally different environment, and with all due respect to a very good Michigan defense, the Huskies are still going to have chances to sling it around.
A HUGE part of Michigan pulling out the win over Alabama were the mistakes by the Tide’s offensive line — three low snaps and six sacks allowed. Washington’s offensive line won the “Joe Moore Award,” which is presented to the nation’s best offensive line. Give Penix time and he’s going to hit his throws.
If I add a prop in this one ...
Rome Odunze OVER 88.5 Receiving Yards (-115) — 0.75-units
Odunze has topped this mark in 11 of 14 games this season, including 100+ in 10 games and each of the last five. Everyone knows where Washington wants to go with the ball, yet they haven’t been able to stop it. Michigan also wasn’t able to stop Marvin Harrison Jr. each of the last two seasons, as he went for 5-118-1 this year and 7-120-1 last year, just to use for comparison.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.