The tool allows us to toggle the tease total to see how a play has performed against various numbers, but I’ll be sticking to the default of 4 points to ensure -110 odds.
Last season, only a few teams won by double digits more often than Milwaukee. Even so, the Bucks still only won by 10 or more in 43.1% of the games they played as a favorite last season.
This season, they’ve only won by 10-plus in 10 of the 33 games in which they’ve been favored (30.3%). Makes this an easy choice when this spread is an even nine points (as of writing) and the teaser gets us some extra cushion. Additionally, in the four games they’ve played as favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, the Bucks have yet to win by 10-plus points.
Speaking of rest, the Spurs last played on Tuesday. That means they fit the trending system of home underdogs ATS after not playing the previous day. Also, underdogs facing a team on the second leg of a back-to-back have only lost by 10-plus in 27.7% of the games this scenario has been in play this season (65 games).
I backed the Warriors at their +3.5 spread in this week’s Trending NBA Systems article, so getting an extra few points here is a no-brainer for me. Like the Spurs, Golden State is a home underdog that didn’t play on Wednesday. The difference here is the Nuggets aren’t on the second leg of a back-to-back like the Bucks.
No matter. The Nuggets are still a rough 6-9 ATS as road favorites this season. Combine that with the system match, and I’m all about Golden State getting teased.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.