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NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Odds, Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Julian Edlow gives out his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 18 of the NFL season.

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images

It’s been a rollercoaster of an NFL season, going into an early hole, coming all the way back, and then having a rough couple of weeks to finish the regular season. Things don’t get much easier in Week 18, with a lot of moving parts to account for. That said, we still have some spots to focus in on before we flip the page to the postseason, including a future. Let’s go over what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook this week.

My 2023 NFL betting record entering Week 18 is 59-57-5 (-9.51-units).

All of these plays were discussed this week on Unreasonable Odds, so take a listen to myself and Joe Osborne if you’d like further analysis.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)

UNDER 35.5 (-110)1.5-units

AFC North divisional matchup here between two teams that’ve combined for a lot of grinders in recent memory. The under has cashed in six straight meetings between the Steelers and Ravens, with totals sitting in the mid to high thirties in each of the last three meetings — which covers since the start of the 2022 season.

The average total score in the last three meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh has been 28.67, with a high of 30 points in any of those games. This is a must-win game for the Steelers, which will lean on running the ball and playing defense. Pittsburgh should control pace while matched up primarily against Baltimore’s backups, as the Ravens have clinched the top-seed in the AFC.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Saturday)

Colts +1.5 (-110)1.5-units

I like the Colts a lot in this one, but have a bit of pause with how much the market has fallen in love with the Texans. I played this for a unit, but if it keeps moving in Houston’s favor and I see no news to change my opinion, I’ll likely add. Indy has already moved from a 2.5-point home favorite to a slight dog.

As far as these two teams know, they are playing for the division, since Jacksonville doesn’t play until Sunday. But even if the Jags win, this game still has playoff implications. The Texans’ last two wins have both been over a Titans squad that’s eliminated from the postseason, and should be challenged in a tough Saturday night road atmosphere. Prior to winning in Tennessee, Houston had dropped three of its last four road games, losing gross ones at the Jets, at the Panthers and at the Falcons.

The Colts haven’t been able to capitalize at home this season, going just 4-4 thus far, but it’s been more about what this team has evolved into — 6-2 in their last eight overall. The Colts also looked strong against Houston on the road early in the season, notching a 31-20 victory. As great as CJ Stroud has been, I don’t see the appeal of hammering Houston to a road favorite here.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Patriots ML (-125)1-unit

1H UNDER 16.5 (-130)2-units

In what could be Bill Belichick’s finale with the Patriots, why not extend his winning streak over the Jets to 16 games? The Patriots have owned this matchup for years, even in the post-Tom Brady era.

After a decent start to the season, despite the Aaron Rodgers injury, the Jets are just 2-7 SU/1-8 ATS over their last nine. The wheels are falling off with this team, while the Patriots, despite just a putrid offense, are still giving good effort and rally around a very good defense. In what should be a gross game, I expect the Patriots to make just enough plays to fins a way to extend the streak.

The bigger news here is the potential blizzard-type conditions that project to hit New England over night on Saturday and through the day on Sunday. This game should be played during this storm. With two offenses that already can barely move the ball, these conditions call for extremely limited scoring. This could be one to add to closer to kick, even at a worse number.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Bills -2.5 (-110) — 1.5-units

When I spoke with the Director of DraftKings Sportsbook, Johnny Avello, on the Unreasonable Odds podcast, he told me that he expects this one to come down below the key number here. I’ll wait for that to happen and likely fire on Buffalo here.

The Bills come in hot, winners of four in a row, and need this one just a bit more than Miami, as they have the potential to still miss the playoffs outright. The number tells us everything we need to know about the power ratings here, as Buffalo is really cruising right now.

The Bills have won 10 of the last 11 against Miami, and I believe they still have an edge in this one, particularly with some key Miami injuries.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.