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NFL Betting Systems for Week 18: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for Week 18 of the NFL season.

Carolina Panthers v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

With this article, I’m highlighting the new Systems feature available in DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub. Check out the feature for yourself to find appealing systems in play this week!

Speaking of new DraftKings Sportsbook tools, customers can now utilize the new Search function on the DraftKings Sportsbook app to find DK Network articles and bets — all in one place!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


System: Under when home team is an underdog

After a 1-1 week with this system, we’re going back to the well. This play is still hanging around the same success rate it had in 2021 (55%), which leads me to believe this number at worst going to maintain through Week 18 — which would still be good for us — or grow toward 2022’s success rate (65%). Because on top of this system’s history, quite a few of these games feature potential playoff teams, so defenses should be tightening things up in Week 18.

Here are the games that fit this system in Week 18:

  • BAL vs. PIT
  • IND vs. HOU
  • TEN vs. JAX
  • CAR vs. TB
  • ARI vs. SEA
  • WAS vs. DAL
  • NYG vs. PHI
  • MIA vs. BUF

Lots to choose from here, but TEN-JAX is my preferred play. The Jaguars are 9-7 to the under this season, and the Titans are 11-5 to the under. Tennessee can only play spoiler in this game, but with a defensive-minded head coach at the helm like Vrabel, it wouldn’t be stunning if the Titans made this a grind-it-out game from start to finish.


System: Home underdogs ATS

Over the last few weeks, this system has gone an impressive 11-6-2. However, this has not been a good system throughout the regular season. Still, those who’ve bet the other side (road favorite ATS) throughout the season have only experienced moderate success at 48-42-7. This is a huge correction after home underdogs went 56-41-4 ATS last season.

Yet, with the same eight games highlighted in the section above in play, there’s room for this system’s season-long record to settle right around a coin flip. And there’s precedent for that.

In 2021, this simple system went 56-54-1. However, the system was just under a 50-50 play until Week 18, when it went 6-3.

With this system struggling as much as it has this season, and several of these games featuring playoff implications, this system could easily experience the same season-ending flip this weekend. Both the Dolphins and Bills are in a must-win situation on Sunday, but I’m ultimately going to take the points where I can get them. MIA is my preferred play.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.