The best Sunday of the NFL season is right around the corner, with both Conference Championships set to take place on Sunday. First, it will be Patrick Mahomes and company traveling to Baltimore, followed by the Lions taking on the 49ers for the NFC crown. Both #1 seeds have made it to the conference title game, and they are both favored to advance to Super Bowl LVIII. Baltimore is a 4-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while San Francisco is favored by a touchdown. There are plenty of prop bets I have my eyes on for Sunday, and below are some of my favorites.
TE Travis Kelce Over 62.5 Rec Yds (-125)
This is by far my favorite bet of the weekend because when it comes to playoff time, nobody is more consistent than Travis Kelce. Not only has he hit the over on this total in both playoff games so far this season, but he has had at least 71 receiving yards in each of his last 11 playoff games. The last time he went under this total in a postseason game was Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers in 2020. In Kansas City’s playoff run this year, he’s combined for 16 targets, 12 receptions, 146 yards, and two touchdowns. When the season is on the line, Mahomes relies heavily on Kelce time after time and I expect this Sunday to be no different against a tough Ravens defense. I see Kelce going over this total easily, and I would also keep my eye on his receptions prop, as his line of over 5.5 catches (-145) has been hit in 10 of his last 12 playoff games.
WR Jameson Williams Over 28.5 Rec Yds (-115)
With a speedster like Williams and such a low prop total, this was a no-brainer as one catch could hit the over for us here. Williams has hit the over on this total in four of his last five games, as he has become a bigger part of this Lions offense down the stretch. He’s been averaging 4.4 targets per game over that period, and if that trend continues on Sunday this shouldn’t be a sweat. Similar to Kelce, I would also keep tabs on his receptions total, as the over 2.5 catches (-110) prop has been hit four times over this recent five-game sample. The Lions should lean on the air attack this Sunday which would be good news for Williams, as the 49ers’ defense ranked #3 against the run in the regular season while they finished pretty average against the pass, finishing 13th in that category.
YES- Each Team to Score 1+ Rush TD (-115) (DET vs SF)
This is not my usual player prop bet, but rather a game prop bet which can be found under “game props” on DraftKings Sportsbook. Each of these teams has scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of their last eight contests, and Detroit’s streak is even longer as the Lions have scored a rush touchdown in each of their last 13 games. Both the Lions and 49ers have incredibly talented running backs, part of the reason why both team’s streaks have lasted so long. In fact, during the regular season, the Lions and 49ers were tied with the Dolphins for the most rushing touchdowns scored with 27. I expect both of these teams to get in the endzone once again on Sunday.
Largest Lead of the Game Under 16.5 Points (-115) (DET vs SF)
This is another game prop for the NFC Championship, and this one was an obvious choice for me when I saw it. Neither the Lions nor the 49ers have been ahead of any team by 17 or more points during their playoff runs so far, and I expect that to stay that way come Sunday. I don’t see either of these teams getting down by three possessions at any point in the game. With the 49ers favored by 7 points, Vegas most likely is assuming they would be the team to get up by that kind of margin, but this Lions offense just seems too good to let that happen. During the regular season, the Lions were 5th in the NFL in scoring offense with 27.2 points per game. Even if Detroit’s defense gets them in a tough spot, this offense should be good enough to keep the game close. If you think there’s a chance this goes the other way and the Lions get out to a big lead, the 49ers offense should be good enough to claw them back in it, as they finished 3rd in scoring offense with 28.6 points per game.
QB Patrick Mahomes Under 26.5 Rush Yds (+100)
Mahomes can scramble when he needs to, but it’s not his best attribute like it is for Lamar Jackson. Although Mahomes usually scrambles a couple of times a game, I think this total is just a little too high for him. He has only gone over this total twice in his last eight games. Last week, Buffalo did a great job holding him in check with 6 carries for only 19 yards, and hopefully, that will continue this week. I most definitely wouldn’t bet against Mahomes in the passing attack, but his rush totals are a different story. During the regular season, he rushed 75 times for 389 yards, an average of 4.7 rush attempts and 24.3 yards per game. Although this prop may come down to the wire, I expect Mahomes to continue his recent trend of going under this total.
RB Gus Edwards Under 44.5 Rush Yds (+100)
At this stage in the season, the Ravens backfield is way too crowded for me to feel confident about Edwards as the supposed lead back. Last week against the Texans, four Baltimore players had at least eight carries, and Edwards finished with the third most on the team with 10. Justice Hill led the way with 13 attempts, while Lamar Jackson had 11. Dalvin Cook took some of the carries when the game was out of hand as he finished with eight. Edwards has a higher total than Hill this week, even though Hill had three more carries and a better average per attempt last week. Baltimore feels like a team that will ride the hot hand instead of having a set-in-stone lead back, which only casts more doubt over who will get the touches. Edwards has been the lead back for most of the season, but between the recent emergence of Hill, the addition of Dalvin Cook and Lamar Jackson’s ever-present threat to run, this seems like a bad spot for Edwards and I anticipate him going under this total.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.