On Monday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Friday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.
Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays have performed since Monday, as well as the systems on the whole.
The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Home underdogs ATS after a loss
This system just got a big boost over the last seven days. Following this recent 7-2 run, this play is 26-16-2 over the last 30 days. But even if you take out the nine games that fit this system over the last seven days, this play came through over 54% of the time in the other 35 games that fit this system over the last month.
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 22
System - 3-7-1
My Picks - 0-2
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 26
Three games fit this system on Friday:
- CHA vs. HOU
- ATL vs. DAL
- TOR vs. LAC
Each of these dogs also didn’t play on Thursday, which means they’re a fit for another system. Over the last 30 days, home underdogs are 34-22-3 ATS when they didn’t play the previous day. Now, this system hasn’t been strong over the last seven days, either. However, it’s been a solid season-long play at 100-84-7.
Looking at these teams with the system we’re focusing on, Atlanta is the first one out. The Mavs have struggled recently, so this is a chance for them to get right. Also, the Hawks are 0-4 ATS in this setting, whereas the Mavs are 4-0 ATS as road favs when coming off a loss.
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in this setting, but they’re obviously a different team without Pascal Siakam. Plus, the Clippers are 7-4 ATS as road favorites following a win.
That brings us to Charlotte, who is 5-5-1 ATS in this setting. The Rockets are playing as road favorites following a loss for only the second time this season (0-1 ATS). In fact, this is only the third time they’ve been favored on the road throughout 2023-24 (1-1 ATS). But, we do know they’re 6-12-1 ATS on the road. Also, if we factor in their home games — which should lead to more favorable outcomes — the Rockets are 8-13-1 ATS after a loss.
PICK: CHA +5.5
SYSTEM: Over on total when home favorites are on second leg of back-to-back
This play has been one of the best system plays of the season, hitting nearly 62% of the time over 55 games. And there’s no sign of this play slowing down. Over the last 30 days, this play is 15-10 (60%).
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 22
System - 0-1*
My Picks - 0-1*
(*The system is 1-0 based on the closing line. But, the over did not hit at the number I listed upon publishing. If you waited to move on Monday’s play and got it at the closing line, you’re 1-0.)
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 27
Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a play that fits this system since Monday. However, there should be one, if not two, on Saturday.
The Bucks will host New Orleans on Saturday, and Sacramento is visiting the Mavericks. Here’s how those teams have performed to the over in this setting:
- The over is 4-0 when MIL is a home favorite on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- NOP has yet to face a home favorite that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back this season.
- The over is 1-1 when DAL is a home favorite on the second leg of a back-to-back.
- The over is 1-3 when SAC is facing a home favorite that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back.
And as we discussed in Wednesday’s article in preparation for Thursday’s slate: Even if the Mavericks are set to be underdogs, the over should be considered for this game. The over is now 26-12-1 when an all-Western Conference game features an underdog that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back. (We hit on POR-HOU Wednesday and then SAC-GSW Thursday.)
And with the Bucks being so good in this setting, I will be on that over, as well.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.