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2024 MLB Win Totals: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Garion Thorne breaks down his favorite win totals on the DraftKings Sportsbook for the 2024 MLB season.

Kansas City Royals v Chicago White Sox - Game Two Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Earlier this month, the DraftKings Sportsbook posted MLB win totals for the upcoming 2024 season. It makes sense. There’s just about three weeks until Spring Training starts and pitchers and catchers report. Baseball is much closer than you think.

Still, it’s been an odd off-season, as several top free agents remain unsigned. How has that impacted the numbers? Are there edges to be gained? Let’s dive in and break it all down.

Giants Over 81.5 (-105)

This feels about right. If you remove their shocking 107-win campaign from 2021, the Giants have probably been the most average team of the decade. San Francisco went 29-31 in the shortened 2020 season, went exactly .500 in 2022 and followed that up last year with 79 victories and a fourth-place finish the NL West. That underwhelming result was enough to get Gabe Kapler fired, with the always steady Bob Melvin brought in to right the ship.

However, that’s not the only addition that the Giants have made — or are expected to make. San Francisco’s first big move of the winter was to bring in former KBO MVP Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113 million deal. Lee will likely have the usual growing pains of an import player, yet Steamer projects the outfielder to amass a 116 wRC+ and a 3.5 fWAR. Those are numbers that would immediately make Lee one of the best hitters in the Giants’ lineup. San Francisco also inked the electric Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal as a starter, yet the RHP will remain a valuable asset even if he’s forced to move back into the team’s bullpen. More importantly, the Giants still appear to have another move in their back pocket, as the team has been heavily connected to both Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. Either would serve as a massive addition. The type of signing that could even move a number.

The point is this: San Francisco is motivated to succeed. The front office has been trying to spend lavishly the past few off-seasons with mixed results, but the intent is there. I have confidence they’ll make another big splash in the free agency market before February ends, adding to a roster that will also be getting full-seasons of top prospects Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano. There’ll be enough talent here to pick up 82 wins.

White Sox Under 63.5 (-120)

This certainly isn’t a contrarian opinion, but the White Sox are going to be absolutely terrible in 2024. While the top of the team’s batting order doesn’t currently look all that awful on paper, the likes of Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez don’t exactly have the best track record of health the past few seasons. It’s also not like Moncada’s been all that amazing when available, either. The former top prospect is slashing just .243/.325/.395 with a 100 wRC+ since the beginning of 2020. Andrew Benintendi, the Sox’s projected leadoff man and recipient of the franchise’s largest-ever free agent contract, posted an 87 wRC+ in 2023 with an .094 ISO that was the fourth-lowest qualified mark in the league. Remember, we’re talking about Chicago’s lineup right now, the most promising aspect of the roster. In this case “promising” is a loose term.

Then there’s the pitching staff. The rotation is currently anchored by Dylan Cease, a man who has been in countless trade rumors throughout the past couple months. I’d be floored if the RHP lasts the whole year with the White Sox. After that, things get really bleak. Erick Fedde signed a two-year deal with Chicago after spending last season in Korea. He owns a career 5.17 FIP in MLB. Michael Kopech’s 6.46 FIP was the highest of the 127 pitchers that managed to throw at least 100 innings in 2023. Michael Soroka has tossed only 32.1 innings since the beginning of 2021. Chris Flexen registered a 6.86 ERA and a 6.20 xERA pitching for both the Mariners and the Rockies last year. It’s not like there some hot pitching prospect waiting in Triple-A. I mean, Touki Toussaint and Deivi Garcia are failed pitching prospects. That’s about as close as this system gets.

At the end of the day, the White Sox lost 101 games in 2023 and the roster is undoubtedly worse heading into 2024. The Central remains the American League’s weakest division, but we saw the impact of the new balanced schedule last season; of the four teams that dropped 100 contests, two resided in this group of five. Plus, the Royals are better. The Tigers are better. The Twins and the Guardians are capable MLB franchises. Chicago might not just finish dead-last in their division, they might threaten to be the worst club in the whole league.

Rays Over 84.5 (-105)

At what point do we stop even analyzing the Rays and just start accepting their institutional sustainability? Is it now? Now seems good to me.

I get it. I understand why people would be skeptical of this season’s incarnation — even more so than in years past. Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and neither will likely come close to pitching till the after the All-Star break. Drew Rasmussen is also not expected to throw a pitch in 2024 after his own set of injury woes last season. Then there’s Tyler Glasnow, Andrew Kittredge and Robert Stephenson, who all left the organization by trade or through free agency in the past two months. That’s a lot of innings to cover. No matter how much you might like Ryan Pepiot or Shane Baz. No matter how often Tampa Bay seems to craft an elite bullpen out of spare household items like MacGyver.

The expected absence of Wander Franco is another major red flag, though one that is lessened in a baseball capacity by the readiness of infield prospects Curtis Mead and Junior Caminero — and that’s a perfect example of why the Rays always remain near the top of a stacked AL East. They always have answers. There’s always someone in waiting. Tampa Bay won 99 games in 2023. According to their Pythagorean record of 100-62, they were tied with the Dodgers as the league’s second-best team. The Rays have averaged 94.2 wins across their last five full-length seasons. They’ve won 65.5% of their contests dating back to the start of 2018. You don’t just luck into that type of success. Expect Tampa to normalize slightly this coming campaign, but still be around 90 victories.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.