The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Home underdogs ATS after a loss
This system just got a big boost over the last seven days. Following this recent 7-2 run, this play is 26-16-2 over the last 30 days. But even if you take out the nine games that fit this system over the last seven days, this play came through over 54% of the time in the other 35 games that fit this system over the last month.
There are two games that fit this system on Monday:
- DET vs. MIL
- DAL vs. BOS
The Mavs are only getting 3.5 points as of writing, but that’s enough. The Celtics are only 8-12-2 ATS on the road. Also, Boston is on the second leg of a back-to-back. Underdogs facing an opponent on the second leg of a back-to-back are 46-36-2 ATS. When underdogs are home in this setting, they’re 17-11-1 ATS.
NOTE: No table laying out potential plays for this system throughout the week because this play is dependent on the outcome of the home underdog’s previous game.
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 22
SYSTEM: Over on total when home favorites are on second leg of back-to-back
This play has been one of the best system plays of the season, hitting nearly 62% of the time over 55 games. There’s no sign of this play slowing down, either. Over the last 30 days, this play is 15-10 (60%).
PHX-CHI is the only game that fits this system on Monday. The Suns are just 2-2 to the over in this setting, and the Bulls are just 1-2 to the over as the underdog when facing a home favorite that’s on the second leg of a back-to-back. But one other note that goes in this play’s favor: the over is 6-4 when this setting is in play for a non-conference game that features an East favorite.
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MATCHES: Over on total when home favorites are on second leg of back-to-back
|PHX vs. CHI
|WAS vs. UTA
|IND vs. PHX
|CHA vs. UTA
|DET vs. OKC
|MIA vs. BOS
|MIL vs. NOP
|GSW vs. SAC
|SA vs. MIN
|DAL vs. SAC
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 22
PHX-CHI over 228.5
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.