Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs Phoenix Suns (40% bets, 75% money)
This line opened with the Pelicans listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with the Suns. However, despite 60% of bets backing Phoenix, we’ve seen this line move further toward the Pelicans -1.5 to -2. This signals a sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on New Orleans, with pros laying the points with the contrarian home favorite. New Orleans is only receiving 40% of bets but 75% of the money, indicating a 35 percentage point smart money discrepancy. The Pelicans have the edge in offensive efficiency (8th vs 11th) and defensive efficiency (8th vs 16th). New Orleans is 24-17 ATS (59%) this season, including 13-8 ATS (62%) at home. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 14-26 ATS (35%), including 9-19 ATS (32%) against non-division opponents. We’ve also seen this total rise from 235 to 237. This is a good “correlative betting” sign for New Orleans as more expected points scored make it easier for a short favorite to cover the number. Those looking to back New Orleans who are wary of a tight game could instead target the Pelicans on the Moneyline at -125.
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers Under 227.5 (29% bets, 48% money)
This total opened at 228. The public sees LeBron James and Anthony Davis at home and says high-scoring game and automatic over. However. despite 71% of bets taking the over we’ve seen this total dip from 228 to 227.5. This indicates respected money leaning under, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the total down a bit even though the majority of tickets are rooting for points. The under is receiving 29% of bets but 48% of money, indicating a 19 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Brooklyn is one of the slower teams in the NBA, ranking 23rd in pace. In addition, both teams rank in the bottom third in terms of offensive efficiency (Nets 19th and Lakers 21st). Both of these teams have been cashing under tickets in the month of January, with Brooklyn 5-2 to the under and Los Angeles 5-3 to the under. Unders have gone 74-57 (57%) overall in the month of January, which indicates heavy regression to the mean as overs have cashed at a high rate to begin the season.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.