clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

NFL Divisional Round Best Bets: Odds, Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

Julian Edlow gives out his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Divisional Round.

NFL: OCT 16 Bills at Chiefs

I thought the Wild Card round was one of the best football betting weekends of the year, and while I’m not quite as strong on these Divisional games, I think it’s still a very strong four-game card. Let’s go over what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook this weekend.

Please remember many of these have been placed in our DK Network betting group on DK Sportsbook throughout the week, so numbers may have moved a bit.


For a full breakdown of these games, checkout this week’s Unreasonable Odds Podcast which gives extensive coverage of all four games, along with all of our favorite betting angles.

I’ll also share some overall thoughts here on the weekend, because I think there’s the potential for good teaser legs in each game. My favorite leg is taking the Chiefs up to 8.5, while I think Lions to a pick’em or Bucs to +12.5 are both viable legs. But where things really open up for teasers is if we can get Baltimore or San Francisco at -2.5. If either become available, expect a teaser added to my card here.


Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 4:35pm ET)

Strong lean to Baltimore -9, but nothing official for me in this game with the current pricing, as well as my future on them to win the Super Bowl.

Public is all over the Texans here, but this is going to be a much tougher spot for CJ Stroud and company. Baltimore is fully rested and ready to go, and weather could slow Houston’s passing game a bit.

Baltimore is 14-3 1H ATS, so I’d also consider laying it in the first half here, and I was very interested in trying to play the double result here (to lead and halftime and win the game). However, despite the similar spreads, the double result price is much steeper on Baltimore than San Francisco.


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday 8:20pm ET)

Half Time/Full Time: 49ers/49ers (-155)1-unit

Really similar spot and handicap to the Baltimore game here. Everyone seems to be falling in love with the performance from the Packers and Texans last week, and while impressive, let’s remember how good these No. 1 seeds are. The Niners have also been off for nearly three weeks here to rest up, while the Packers are on their fourth road game in five weeks.

This is where it should all catchup to the Packers and they run into a buzzsaw. Dallas wasn’t ready for Green Bay, San Francisco absolutely will be. Strong lean to laying anything less than 10 with the Niners, but given my 4-unit position on them to win the NFC, I’m not going to pile on with any points.

But I do think the double result is much to cheap in this game, so anything up to -180 I will lay 49ers to lead at halftime and win the game. This could get ugly early, and if it does, a comeback is highly unlikely for Green Bay. Plays right into the Niners’ strengths.

Prop to consider: Christian McCaffrey O91.5 Rushing Yards

CMC went over this number in nine of his 16 games this season, but game script had a ton to do with it. He stayed under during the entire three-game losing streak, and also stayed under in a lot of games the Niners won big. In this scenario everything seems to stack up in a positive light — he’s well-rested, it’s a must-win game that you don’t rest in until very late in the game with it well out of hand, and the matchup is perfect. The Packers rank 28th in rushing yards allowed this season, and gave up over 140 per game on the road. Worth looking to tie this all together in a potential SGP — something along the lines on McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards, Niners team total over and a Niners win.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (Sunday 3:05pm ET)

6PT Teaser: Bucs +12.5/Chiefs +8.5 (-120)1-unit

Baker Mayfield O253.5 Passing Yards (-115) 2-units

Jared Goff O274.5 Passing Yards (-115) 1-unit

I do lean to the Lions winning this game, but I feel stronger that it doesn’t get out of hand. The Bucs are a ridiculous 8-1 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, making them tough to fade in this game, at least laying any points. I like Tampa as a teaser leg, but this is the game of the weekend for props. Let’s go through some game scripts.

Passing, passing and more passing. Despite some of the concerns of Tampa Bay beat writers as to how the teams will handle playing this game in freezing Detroit, the Lions will continue to play indoors at Ford Field. Ok, now onto some more serious analysis.

This matchup sets up perfectly for both teams to abandon the run and try to win this game through the air. Detroit ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, while Tampa is right behind them at at fourth. Flip that, and we have the Lions checking it with the 30th-ranked passing defense in terms of yards allowed, with the Bucs just a tad better at 27th. Both offenses come in playing really well, and should push each other to keep attacking throughout the course of the game.

As for why I’m making Mayfield the biggest play, it’s just a combination of him playing extremely well lately and Detroit’s secondary really struggling the past few games. Baker ripped off 337 through the air last week in the postseason, marking his fourth time over 280 in five games (three of them 300-plus). Meanwhile, the Lions are giving up just shy of 350 yards per game through the air over the last three. Tack on the indoor aspect and a game script as roughly a touchdown underdog and Mayfield should be slinging.

Other props to consider: Cade Otton O30.5 Receiving Yards and Chris Godwin O64.5 Receiving Yards

If Mayfield is slinging, then somebody has to be catching. I think these two guys draw the best matchups for big games. The Lions got shredded by TE this season, and Otton is off an 8-89-0 line in a game he was targeted 11 times. He left a lot of meat on the bone with some bad drops. Godwin should draw a similar matchup to Puka Nacua, who went bonkers last week.


Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6:35pm ET)

Chiefs +3 (-118)2.5-units

I didn’t think the Chiefs would be the team I keep riding this postseason, but they just keep getting put in tremendous spots. After leaving no doubt in their domination of the Dolphins, the scene shifts to Buffalo. “Patrick Mahomes has never played a road playoff game! Blah, blah!” Sure, but he’s played in three Super Bowls and one of them was against the Bucs in Tampa Bay.

What’s more valuable in this game? The Bills being at home or the Chiefs having a full two-day head start in their prep for this game? I’ll take the extra time, as Kansas City played on Saturday night and Buffalo on Monday.

Outside of the extra time for Mahomes and Andy Reid, the Bills are extremely beat up. Friday’s injury report ruled out the likes of Gabe Davis and a few key defensive pieces. The Chiefs have always matched up well with Buffalo in my mind, and I think will rally both around being underdogs, playing on the road, and the game they feel they were robbed of at home against this very team on an offensive offsides penalty.



Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!


All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.