On Tuesday, I broke down the two systems below. We’re sticking with those systems throughout the week, so you’ll find some of the same information if you read the article earlier in the week. However, this update includes picks for Friday’s slate and additional info that’s specific to those games.
Also, you’ll find the record on how my plays have performed since Tuesday, as well as the systems on the whole.
The new Systems tool in the DraftKings Sportsbooks’ Stats Hub highlights plays based on various factors that have been trending over the last seven days, last 30 days and the entire season. With this article, we’re going to look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week with the intent of finding other games that could apply to those systems over the next week of games.
One thing to note about the potential upcoming system matches sections throughout this article. NBA favorite/underdog, spread and totals are generally not available until the evening before games. Also, some systems can be based on the result of a previous game. Confirm the games mentioned under this section are matches prior to making your picks.
SYSTEM: Over on total in non-conference games when East is favored
We played this system to start the 2024 portion of the schedule, and it continues to be a reliable option.
Over the last seven days, the system has popped off at 9-4. While a near-70% success rate over the last week doesn’t seem sustainable, this has proven to be a strong season-long investment so far. Over the last 30 days, the over is 25-13-1 in this setting. On the season, it’s 45-30-2.
Looking at this system’s history, the over went 130-99-1 last season. That means regression should come at some point, but that’s still a strong success rate.
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE SINCE JANUARY 16
System - 1-3
My Picks - 1-1
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 19
There are four games that had the potential to fit this system when we looked ahead on Tuesday. In the end, there are only three options to pick from:
- CHA vs. SA
- BOS vs. DEN
- IND vs. POR
This play had a rough night on Wednesday, going 0-3. Here’s how the teams above have performed to the over in non-conference games:
- SA 8-6-2
- CHA 6-7
- BOS 8-4
- DEN 8-6-1
- IND 4-7
- POR 2-10
When it comes to the system, here’s how these teams have performed to the over:
- SA 8-5-2
- CHA N/A (first time being favored vs. West team this season)
- BOS 7-4
- DEN 1-0
- IND 2-1
- POR 2-9
Even with all those numbers at play, I’m landing on CHA-SA. These two teams finished with 234 points recently, in what was LaMelo Ball’s return to action after his extended absence. While it’s an intangible, knowing these two teams could run wild while Ball was just getting back on track is huge. Because Ball is only going to push the offensive tempo more the more he plays — and do nothing to hinder the offensive production of Charlotte’s opponent.
PICK: CHA-SA over 235.5
SYSTEM: Home favorites ATS following a loss
This play popped off last week, going 8-2 to bring its hit rate to 32-28-1 over the last 30 days. That said, it’s essentially been a coin-flip play this season at 82-79-1.
SYSTEM PERFORMANCE FROM JANUARY 17-18
System - 3-1
My Pick - 2-0
SYSTEM PICK FOR JANUARY 19
Two games fit this system on Friday. One of the options seems far more appealing than the other:
- CHA vs. SAS
- MIA vs. ATL
This is a reasonable bounce-back spot for the Hornets. However, I don’t trust that LaMelo Ball working toward full strength equates to wins. Points, yes, but not necessarily wins.
Doesn’t mean CHA is unplayable ATS, but MIA is definitely a more appealing play once the numbers are considered.
MIA is 8-7 ATS as a home favorite, 7-6 as a home favorite when facing a team within the conference. Nothing groundbreaking, but good enough to trust the Heat on Friday. That’s because Atlanta is the worst team ATS on the road at 6-15. Their cover rate improves a smidge when you focus on just the road games in which they’ve been dogs, but 4-8 is still a bottom-five cover rate in this setting. Cut out all the games against Western Conference teams, and that number drops to 2-8 — an NBA-worst mark (excluding the Celtics, who have only been in this setting once and are 0-1).
PICK: MIA -8
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.