The Wild Card round featured a ton of blowouts, with the Sunday night game between the Rams and Lions finishing as the only one-score result. The Divisional Round is now set, with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Las Vegas is predicting more lopsided matchups for this round of games, as two of the four games have nine or more point spreads on DraftKings Sportsbook (HOU vs BAL -9) and (GB VS SF-9.5). Despite that, there are still plenty of opportunities for us to cash some bets throughout these four games. Below are my favorite prop bets for the divisional round.
RB Christian McCaffrey Over 91.5 Rush Yds (-115)
The Packers' defense did a great job containing Tony Pollard last Sunday, holding him to 56 yards on 15 carries. They will have an entirely different challenge containing McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing by 292 yards. He has hit the over on this total in six of his last eight games and is poised to do that once again on Sunday. Despite the Packers holding the Dallas run game in check, they didn’t do much of that during the season. The Packers finished 28th in the NFL against the rush, giving up 128 yards per game on the ground. They were particularly bad against the run in away games, where they gave up 141.4 yards per game. I think the 49ers attack this Packers defense on the ground, and use that to set up play-action deep shots in the air.
TE Dalton Kincaid Over 40.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Kincaid has been a massive part of the Bills late season charge, hitting the over on this total in eight of his last 12 games. Kincaid has been getting more and more involved in the passing attack as the season has unfolded and has hit this total with ease in each of his last three starts. He has been targeted at least six times in each of those starts, a big reason why his numbers have been on the rise. Kincaid finished as the Bills second most targeted player in the regular season with 673 yards. He played in 16 games, which gives him an average of 42.06 receiving yards per game. We just need Kincaid to have an average game to hit the over on this total. Either team could win this game, but I like Kincaid to go way over this total if he continues to be targeted consistently.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 92.5 Rec Yds (-115)
St. Brown has been unstoppable in recent months, and he helped us hit the over last week in the Wild Card round. St.Brown has had at least 93 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should be able to achieve that feat again when the Lions play the Buccaneers on Sunday. These teams matched up in Tampa Bay in Week 6, where St. Brown finished with 12 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay was much better against the run than the pass in the regular season, finishing 4th against the run and 27th against the pass. Detroit would be smart to keep firing the ball downfield, as Jared Goff has been playing good football recently. St. Brown has been especially consistent at home this season, as 77 yards is his lowest tally at Ford Field so far. I like the Lions to advance to the NFC Championship, largely due to the advantage they should have against this Tampa Bay secondary.
QB C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 INTs (+130)
Stroud cashed this exact bet for us last week against the Browns, and I am taking it again this week against the Ravens. This week, the odds are much better at plus money. I think this is a no-brainer, considering Stroud has not thrown an interception in any of his last six games, and as I said last week, he led the NFL in interception percentage, only throwing a pick on 1% of his throws during the regular season. He hasn’t thrown an interception since November 19th, and although Houston might not win this game, I still think Stroud will take care of the football. He looked just fine last week against the widely praised Browns defense, and I think he will do the same this week against a Ravens defense that had even fewer interceptions than Cleveland during the regular season. Baltimore finished with 14 interceptions, tied for 12th in that category.
RB Aaron Jones Under 67.5 Rush Yds (-120)
Aaron Jones has been absolutely on fire lately, going for at least 111 yards in each of his last four games, while averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry in all four. Despite this, I am taking the contrarian play of the under here. This total is just too high for me, considering the 49ers’ dominance on the ground this season. They finished 3rd in that category, only allowing 89.7 rush yards per game. What is even more impressive is that only three opposing players went over this total all season, Jerome Ford, Joe Mixon and James Conner. The Packers are 9.5-point underdogs, and could easily find themselves in an early hole, which would make this total even tougher to achieve for Jones.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs Under 45.5 Rush Yds (-115)
David Montgomery established himself as the lead back for this playoff run last week against the Rams, finishing with six more carries than Gibbs and more yards per attempt. Montgomery finished with 14 rushes for 57 yards, while Gibbs was given 8 attempts for 25. To make this spot even more difficult for Gibbs, he will face a Buccaneers defense that is stout against the run. They finished 4th in the NFL in that category and completely shut down the Eagles' rushing attack last Monday. D’Andre Swift led Philadelphia with 10 carries for 35 yards in the loss. I think Gibbs has too much to overcome in this spot between the matchup and Montgomery.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.