Postseason football has finally arrived, and the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend should not disappoint with two games slated for Saturday, three on Sunday, and Eagles vs. Buccaneers set for Monday night. There are a bunch of storylines this weekend, from Joe Flacco looking to lead the Browns to a playoff win after sitting on his couch half the season, to the Lions looking for their first playoff win since 1992. With that said, there are also plenty of opportunities for us to make some money on DraftKings Sportsbook. This time of year is my favorite for finding great lines, as teams tend to rely on their star players with the season hanging in the balance. Below are my favorite prop bets for this weekend’s wild card action.
WR Amari Cooper Over 75.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Three weeks ago, these teams matched up in the same stadium that they will on Saturday, and Amari Cooper had the game of his life, catching 11 passes for 265 yards and two touchdowns. CJ Stroud was out for the Texans during that game, but it’s still the same Houston defense that Cooper shredded on Christmas Eve of last year. In each of his last three games of the season, he hit the over on this number. Cooper has been dealing with an injury and hasn’t played since that game, but he does not have an injury tag for this week. The Texans could try a different game plan on Cooper, but the Browns have other weapons that can get wide open, like Elijah Moore and David Njoku. To make this bet even more enticing, the Texans have been miserable against the pass all year, ranking 23rd in the league in passing yards against. I think Houston slows down Cooper compared to his last performance, but I would bet on the over here.
WR Puka Nacua Over 76.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Nacua has had an absolutely ridiculous rookie season, breaking the rookie receiving record as he finished with 1,486. After breaking the record last week, he was benched as the Rams playoff seed was already locked in. The two weeks before that, he was the focal point of this offense, going for over 100 yards in two consecutive games. The Rams are headed to face the Lions, who are much better at run defense than pass defense. Detroit finished second in rushing yards against but 27th in passing yards against. This Rams offense loves running the football with Kyren Williams, but the passing attack might be the better option in this matchup. Nacua is clearly the #1 option in the passing game, as he finished fourth in the league in receiving yards.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 87.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Next up, we have Amon-Ra St. Brown, and I like him to go over this prop for the same reasons I also like Nacua to go over his in this game. The Rams’ defense is better against the run than the pass, as they finished 12th against the rush and 20th against the pass. This Rams secondary gives up an average of 231.1 passing yards per game, which is bad news when they are facing St. Brown, who finished 3rd in the league in receiving yards. The Lions didn’t rest anyone down the stretch, and as a result, St. Brown has hit the over on this total in each of his last four games. St. Brown is the best player on this Lions offense, and it would be silly not to try to get him the ball as much as possible against a defense that is suspect in the air.
QB Mason Rudolph Under 154.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Editor’s Note: The Steelers-Bills matchup has been postponed until Monday, January 15, at 4:30 p.m. ET due to inclement weather.
According to multiple reports, the weather for this game is supposed to be horrendous. Bad enough that Governor Kathy Hochul is declaring a state of emergency in Western New York. The Steelers played another bad weather game last weekend in the pouring rain in Baltimore. They got the win, but despite that, Rudolph went under this total. The conditions are supposed to be much worse for this game, which makes the under even more appetizing to me. The total for this game sits at 33.5, by far the lowest of any game on the slate. I think this will be a game won and lost in the trenches, and not in the air. The Bills are also a top-10 defense against the pass, while they finished #15 in the NFL against the run. You would expect a team like the Steelers to try to pound the football and win the time of possession battle, which will take the ball out of Rudolph’s hands.
WR Mecole Hardman Jr. Under 14.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Hardman has only gone over this total once all season, and it was last week when the Chiefs were locked into the #3 seed in the AFC, so they rested most of their starters. That game aside, his best game would’ve been October 29th, when he had two catches for 13 yards. With Kansas City’s top playmakers back in the fold on Saturday, I think Hardman will struggle to get any targets. He currently has the 11th most receiving yards on the roster this season. To make matters worse, the cold weather expected in Kansas City should only hinder each team’s passing game, although it shouldn’t be as much of a factor as in the Buffalo game. I think Hardman goes under this small total, and I would be surprised if he registered a catch.
QB C.J. Stroud Under 0.5 INTs (-125)
Stroud led the NFL in interception percentage, only throwing a pick on 1% of his throws. On the season, he finished with 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. He will now be facing one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Texans very well might lose this game comfortably, but I think either way, Stroud knows how to take care of the football. The Browns allowed the least passing yards against them on the season but didn’t lead the league in interceptions. They finished tied for third in that category with 18. Stroud is in for a tough day at the office, but hopefully, his habit of not turning the ball over will continue into the postseason.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.