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NFL Betting Systems for Wild Card Round: Football Picks, Best Bets, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar examines the best betting systems that are in play for the NFL Wild Card Round.

Houston Texans v Indianapolis Colts Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.


System: Over on total in AFC Wild Card games

Bettors who’ve blindly taken the over in Wild Card games over the last two seasons have made out just fine at 7-5. But if we dig a little deeper, we find a real system to consider.

The over is 5-1 in AFC Wild Card games over the last two seasons. So, not only does that mean it’s best to take the over in AFC Wild Card games, but it’s also best to take the under in NFC Wild Card games.

Now, let’s look at some numbers specific to the AFC teams in play this week. Here’s how each of these teams has performed toward the over this season when facing a conference opponent outside of their division:

  • CLE 5-1
  • MIA 4-2
  • HOU 3-3
  • KC 2-4
  • PIT 2-4
  • BUF 2-4

I do think it’s worth attacking each of these three games in some capacity. But if you’re only going to play one, CLE-HOU is my preferred option.

And since there’s an NFC system worth considering here, with the under being 4-2 in NFC Wild Card games the last two seasons, let’s take a look at those teams, too. Here’s how each NFC team performed toward the under this season when facing a conference opponent outside of their division:

  • TB 4-2
  • PHI 3-3
  • LAR 3-3
  • DET 3-3
  • DAL 2-4
  • GB 2-4

Obviously, all of these games are essentially prime-time matchups. But while I wouldn’t go so far as to apply the prime-time unders system to each of these three NFC games, that factor only makes me feel better when looking at that Monday night contest. Plus, on top of Tampa being 4-2 to the under in this setting throughout the regular season, the Eagles have gone 3-1 to the under with Jalen Hurts at QB in the playoffs. If you’re also looking to mess around with these games and just want to get in on one, PHI-TB is my preferred option.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.