Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
Top Sharp Bets
New York Knicks -4 at Dallas Mavericks (74% bets, 92% money)
This line opened with the Mavericks listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Knicks, flipping New York all the way to a 4-point road favorite. To put it another way, we’ve seen sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Knicks. A big reason for this move is the fact that Mavs star Luka Doncic was ruled out with an ankle sprain. New York is receiving 74% of bets but 92% of money, indicating an 18 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Those looking to hop on the sharp line move but wary of laying the points could instead target the Knicks on the moneyline at -175. New York is receiving 64% of Moneyline bets but 84% of Moneyline dollars, indicating a 20 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Road favorites are 129-66 (66%) straight up this season. Non-conference favorites are 109-50 (69%) straight up. All three refs tonight are considered “road refs,” with Bill Kennedy, Sean Wright and Danielle Scott between 51% and 57% ATS to the visitor. The Knicks are a perfect 5-0 since acquiring OG Anunoby. They also lead the NBA in defensive rating since acquiring Anunoby.
Portland Trailblazers +12.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder (36% bets, 66% money)
This line opened with the Thunder listed as a 14-point home favorite. The public has taken one look at each team’s won-loss record (Portland 10-26 vs Oklahoma City 25-11) and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Thunder, expecting an easy blowout win. However, despite 64% of bets laying the points with the Thunder, we’ve actually seen OKC fall from -14 to -12.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points to begin with? Because pro money has jumped on the Blazers plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the road dog. Portland is only receiving 36% of bets but 66% of money, a 30 percentage point smart money discrepancy. Double-digit road dogs are 35-26 ATS (57%) this season. This is also a “rest vs tired” advantage for Portland, who was off yesterday while the Thunder played in Miami. OKC is also playing their first home game after a four-game road trip, which is historically a letdown spot. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back has gone 98-78 ATS (56%) this season. The Blazers are 6-3 ATS (67%) as a double-digit dog this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.