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MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 7

Garion Thorne gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

New York Mets v Atlanta Braves Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images

I know. I know. Today isn’t about baseball. Heck, even MLB is basically stepping aside for the NFL this evening with only six games on the diamond. Still, that doesn’t mean we don’t have some crucial matchups, as there are a couple possible Wild Card previews taking place in Tampa Bay and Chicago.

How should you go about betting this slate? I’m glad you asked.

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Eddie Rosario Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

It took forever to find a Braves bat with a plus-money offensive prop tonight. The reason for that is two-fold. First and foremost, Atlanta’s lineup is an unstoppable force that leads baseball in both ISO (.235) and wOBA (.370) since the All-Star break. The second part of the equation is the presence of Adam Wainwright, who should be able to sue the Cardinals for making him pitch in this contest. Wainwright has looked slightly better as of late — he’s recorded quality starts in two of his last three appearances — yet he’s also walked more opponents (7) than he’s struck out (6) in that same span. For the season as a whole, his ERA remains ugly at 8.10, while that figure is backed up by an equally atrocious 7.60 xERA.

So how does Rosario specifically fit into all this? To put it plainly, he was born left-handed. LHBs have killed Wainwright in 2023, slashing .368/.435/.626 with a .445 wOBA off the 42-year-old — that’s the second-highest slugging percentage allowed among all pitchers who have faced at least 150 left-handed batters this season. Rosario can also hit the over on this prop on his own merits. Dating back to August 1, Rosario has registered a .301 batting average with a 143 wRC+ across 107 plate appearances. He’s quite good, even if he gets lost in the shuffle of his All-Star teammates.

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees

Carlos Rodon Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+120)

Rodon hasn’t exactly been economical with his pitches in 2023. He also just hasn’t been any good in general, posting a 5.70 ERA and a 6.64 FIP in the nine starts he’s been able to make. However, there does appear to be a little light at the end of the tunnel. In the three appearances Rodon has made since his second IL stint of the season, he’s pitched to a 2.87 ERA despite a schedule that included both the Rays and the Astros. The biggest difference between this recent stretch and the first six outings of Rodon’s campaign? Walks. The LHP has walked just 4.8% of the last 63 opponents he’s faced, as opposed to a massive 14.8% walk rate in the 27.0 innings prior. His control appears to be coming back, which in turn, should allow Rodon to work deeper into games.

Thursday’s matchup with the Tigers is doing a lot to help Rodon’s case, as well. Detroit has struggled to score runs and string hits together all year long, yet the team has looked especially poor across the last two weeks. In that span, the Tigers have produced just a 79 wRC+ and a league-worst .109 ISO, while they also had to place sophomore phenom Riley Greene on the IL. If there was ever a lineup that could make Rodon look like the 2022 version of himself, it’s this one.

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.