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System: Under on total when home team is an underdog
The under didn’t hit despite the Packers being home underdogs Thursday. But, that doesn’t change the fact that taking the under when a home team is playing as an underdog is a good approach.
To start 2023, that play is 10-7 (58.82%). Since the start of the 2022 season, the under is 76-41-2 (63.9%) when the home team is the underdog.
This system applies to the following games:
- DEN @ CHI
- CIN @ TEN
- CAR @ HOU
- LAR @ IND
- KC @ NYJ
Of the bunch, the under in DEN at CHI is most appealing. Yes, these two teams have hit the over in five of their combined six games this season, but the Bears’ massive offensive issues make this easy to sign off on when also factoring in the aforementioned system.
Plus, there are a few other systems in play for this game, which each range back to the start of the 2021 season:
- The under is 96-71-3 (56.5%) in non-conference games.
- The under is 46-25-1 (63.9%) in non-conference games that feature a home underdog.
- The under is 27-10 (73%) in non-conference games that feature an NFC home underdog.
System: Under on the total in AFC Divisional Games
In general, divisional games have been heavy to the under since 2021, clocking in a 115-97-3 record (54.5%) following Thursday’s game. But when you look a little closer at this system, Detroit and Green Bay hitting the over is a little less surprising. The under is only 52-48-3 (50.5%) in divisional games between NFC opponents since the start of 2021.
That means playing the over in AFC divisional games is the way to go. At 62-43-1 (58.5%), this system is a good one to consider week-to-week.
There are three games featured in this system:
- BAL @ CLE
- MIA @ BUF
- LV @ LAC
Additionally, each of these games features a home favorite. During the aforementioned time frame, the under is 42-26-1 (60.9%) in AFC divisional games that feature a home favorite. With the Raiders in a tough spot at QB this week, the under in LV at LAC is the most appealing of this bunch.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.