All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Shane Bieber made his return from the 60-day IL last time out against a tough Baltimore team. While seeing him throw 81 pitches over five frames is a positive enough sign for the Guardians, that alone isn’t enough to back Bieber on Wednesday against a Cincinnati lineup that has a .201 ISO against right-handed pitching this month. Especially when factoring in Cleveland only has a .146 ISO against left-handed pitching this month, which is in part the result of a 47.3% ground-ball rate and 27.9% hard-contact rate within the split.
Also, over the last 30 days, marginal road underdogs are 39-30 (56.52%). More importantly, no team is better as an interleague underdog than the Reds. They’ve got a 63.6% win percentage (21-12) in that setting this season
No team has been more favorable to the under than Cleveland this season (55.7%). That play has hit most often in divisional games (69.4%), but Wednesday provides a few different scenarios that make this appealing — two of which include Cincy.
The under is 41-22-1 in Cleveland games following an over hit (64.1%). When coming off a loss in which the over hit, the Guardians have seen the under hit 66.7% of the time (22-11) this season.
The under is 42-34-1 in Cincinnati games following an over hit (54.5%). When coming off a win in which the over hit, The Reds have seen the under hit 55% of the time (22-18).
The Angels took it to Texas on Tuesday, which means they’re in a spot that’s led to a significant amount of success for Run Line underdogs this season. Following a win, RL underdogs have covered 57.79% of the time (623-455).
When looking specifically at divisional RL underdogs, those teams have covered 56.5% of the time this season. Focus in on AL divisional dogs and the play gets more promising, as those teams have covered 58.2% of the time throughout 2023. The Angels are 48-40 on the RL this season (54.5%) and 16-14 on the RL in divisional games (55.2%).
Also, RL underdogs have covered 58% of the time this month. And while divisional dogs have covered 55.5% of the time throughout September, AL divisional dogs have elevated that mark a bit with their 57.5% success rate.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.