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Thanks to the new Systems tab on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, some plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
Reds +110
Shane Bieber made his return from the 60-day IL last time out against a tough Baltimore team. While seeing him throw 81 pitches over five frames is a positive enough sign for the Guardians, that alone isn’t enough to back Bieber on Wednesday against a Cincinnati lineup that has a .201 ISO against right-handed pitching this month. Especially when factoring in Cleveland only has a .146 ISO against left-handed pitching this month, which is in part the result of a 47.3% ground-ball rate and 27.9% hard-contact rate within the split.
Also, over the last 30 days, marginal road underdogs are 39-30 (56.52%). More importantly, no team is better as an interleague underdog than the Reds. They’ve got a 63.6% win percentage (21-12) in that setting this season
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Total under 7.5 runs +100
No team has been more favorable to the under than Cleveland this season (55.7%). That play has hit most often in divisional games (69.4%), but Wednesday provides a few different scenarios that make this appealing — two of which include Cincy.
The under is 41-22-1 in Cleveland games following an over hit (64.1%). When coming off a loss in which the over hit, the Guardians have seen the under hit 66.7% of the time (22-11) this season.
The under is 42-34-1 in Cincinnati games following an over hit (54.5%). When coming off a win in which the over hit, The Reds have seen the under hit 55% of the time (22-18).
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Angels +1.5 -125
The Angels took it to Texas on Tuesday, which means they’re in a spot that’s led to a significant amount of success for Run Line underdogs this season. Following a win, RL underdogs have covered 57.79% of the time (623-455).
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When looking specifically at divisional RL underdogs, those teams have covered 56.5% of the time this season. Focus in on AL divisional dogs and the play gets more promising, as those teams have covered 58.2% of the time throughout 2023. The Angels are 48-40 on the RL this season (54.5%) and 16-14 on the RL in divisional games (55.2%).
Also, RL underdogs have covered 58% of the time this month. And while divisional dogs have covered 55.5% of the time throughout September, AL divisional dogs have elevated that mark a bit with their 57.5% success rate.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.