Everyone has been talking about the Week 4 college football card, and it’s finally here with seemingly unlimited options on DraftKings Sportsbook. I’ll have plenty of action this weekend, so let’s rip through these games.
My 2023 college football betting record entering Week 4 is 13-11 (+0.35-units).
Florida State at Clemson (Saturday 12:00 pm ET)
Clemson -2.5 (-110) — 1.5-units (Lookahead played over summer)
I got myself some brutal CLV here, as you are reading the number above correctly. I played Clemson -2.5 in July, knowing it would move to 3, and it did. Good job, me. Problem is, Clemson stunk it up Week 1 at Duke, while FSU got a big-time win over LSU. Here we are. I’ll live with the number I have, but Clemson would still be my side entering this week, so if you didn’t tail, enjoy a better number on +2.5 or a plus-price moneyline.
The whole world is lining up to bet FSU after those Week 1 results, but let’s see if these teams might actually be a little closer to what we thought they were just a few weeks ago in the preseason.
The Seminoles are a terrific team, but we saw them look extremely pedestrian in their first road game last week at BC. The Eagles always rally for the Red Bandana game, but they nearly upset FSU as more than three-touchdown dogs. In the effort, FSU had a few key players dinged up — most notably Jordan Travis’ shoulder.
Now the Seminoles go on the road again for a far more difficult road atmosphere at Death Valley. Clemson hasn’t been a home dog since 2016, so these spots are rare. After being embarrassed in Week 1, Clemson absolutely needs this win if they want to have any kind of season. The defense remains elite, and if this offense can fix those Week 1 mistakes, watch for the upset.
Colorado at Oregon (Saturday 3:30 pm ET)
Oregon Team Total OVER 45.5 (-115) — 1-unit
Everyone’s betting this game one way or the other. Pros pounding the favorite, Joes hammering the trendy dog. I’d lean Ducks, but I won’t get involved with a side ... at least when it comes to laying points. I like a lot of high team totals this week with some elite offenses, and this is one of them. We’ve seen Oregon running up scoreboards all season — 80+ in the opener and 50+ against Hawaii. Look for them to send a message against a Colorado defense that’s nothing special.
Arkansas at LSU (Saturday 7:00 pm ET)
LSU Team Total OVER 36.5 (-120) — 1-unit
Since the loss to FSU, the Tigers have had their foot on the gas to try and send a message the rest of the way. This team still has the talent for 11 wins and a re-match against UGA in the SEC Championship game. LSU put 72 on Grambling State, followed by 41 on the road at Mississippi State in SEC play. This isn’t a very tough Arkansas defense, as the Hogs are coming off allowing 38 at home to BYU in a loss.
Oregon State at Washington State (Saturday 7:00 pm ET)
Washington State +3 (-110) — 1.5-units
I really like Oregon State, so this was a tough call at first. But as the week goes on, I’m liking Wazzu in the home dog role more and more. As strong as the Beavers have looked, they are still relatively untested. Meanwhile, the Cougars dropped 50 on the road in the opener at Colorado State, and then followed it up with an outright victory in dominant fashion over Wisconsin as home dogs. I give the quarterback edge to Wazzu as well, with fantastic play from Cam Ward thus far. I’ll play on Washington State in a game I feel the wrong team is favored.
Appalachian State at Wyoming (Saturday 7:00 pm ET)
Wyoming ML (-130) — 1-units
Here’s your under the radar game, with about six televisions required during the 7-8pm ET kickoff window. Nobody will be watching this game in Wyoming ... myself included. But I’ll be tracking the score, as I think this is a good spot for the Cowboys.
Wyoming has been terrific at home over the years, and we saw some home cooking early in this season when the Cowboys upset Texas Tech. App State is a solid program, and always gives UNC a run for its money. But this isn’t a team that plays well in road contests like this, nor do they have a good recent history as short dogs.
I played this one early in our DK Network betting group, but I’m fine laying up to -3.
Ohio State at Notre Dame (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
Notre Dame +3.5 (-115) — 1.5-units
This will be the most-watched game in the night window, and I’ll once again be rolling with a home dog. Prior to the season, I was down on the Irish, but they’ve swayed me. Neither of these teams have any real tests, outside of ND going to play at NC State. While it took them a while to get going in bad weather, the Irish ran away with it in the end against a tough defense on the road.
Now the Irish will be at home, and have a massive QB advantage in this game. Ohio State might have an edge up front, but I do like how ND should get cornerback play to at least limit all the damage these elite Buckeye receivers are capable of. With a young QB starting his first big road game, I think getting the ball to the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr. will become much more difficult.
I’m fine playing this one down to +3, and I like a small play on the moneyline as well. Remember a 50% boost is being offered on this game.
Iowa at Penn State (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
Iowa +14.5 (-112) — 1-unit
I don’t have as much analysis on this one as it is a gut call. Penn State is the more talented team, but getting over two touchdowns here feels like a ton of points for a Big Ten game with some really good defenses. This should turn into a grind, and if that’s the case, getting this many points will hold on. Iowa’s been a rollercoaster on offense thus far, but it should be able to rely on the defense to keep them in this one.
Mississippi State at South Carolina (Saturday 7:30 pm ET)
UNC at Pittsburgh (Saturday 8:00 pm ET)
UNC -6 (-110) — 2-units
UNC/SC ML Parlay (-114) — 1.5-units
My first two bets of the week were UNC -6 and SC -4, and I put the UNC play in our DK Network betting group. The number have since spiked to 7.5 and 6.5 respectively, so I thought the ML parlay would be a good way to add to a play that everyone can still get.
On the UNC side of things, this is mostly a Pitt fade. The Panthers were awful in a Week 2 home loss to Cincy as roughly touchdown favorites, and then predictably even worse on the road at WVU. Phil Jurkovek is 18/52 passing the ball over his last two games. The UNC defense is nothing special, but we saw it thrive on the weakness of South Carolina in the opener. I expect the Pitt offense to struggle, while the defense does its best to keep the Panthers in it. But Drake Maye has put up at least 31 points in each game, and I just don’t see how Pitt keeps up.
South Carolina played Georgia really tough on the road for a half last week, but the Bulldogs came out of the locker room and dominated the second half. That sets up a bounce-back spot for the Gamecocks, who will host a poor Miss State squad. The Bulldogs needed overtime to take care of a bad Arizona team and home, and then the next week had another home game against LSU in which they took sharp money at +10, and got completely blown out. Going on the road to face an angry South Carolina team that’s hungry for a win after losses to good UNC and UGA programs is not the spot the Bulldogs want to be in.
USC at Arizona State (Saturday 10:30 pm ET)
USC Team Total OVER 48.5 (-110) — 1-unit
The team total plays are generally pretty simple handicaps for me. USC has scored 56 against San Jose State, 66 against Nevada and 56 again versus Stanford. Arizona State has been dreadful this season, and the Trojans have a reason to run up the score in a competitive PAC-12 with the QB going for consecutive Heisman wins.
Cal at Washington (Saturday 10:30 pm ET)
The Huskies are also hopeful of keeping the Heisman in the PAC-12, but going to their QB in Michael Penix Jr. He’s been playing out of this world so far this season, leading Washington to 56 points against Boise State, 43 against Tulsa and then 41 at Michigan State. Hosting Cal sets up another good spot to keep putting up big numbers.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.