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MLB Picks for September 21: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Steve Buchanan gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Six games are on the Thursday night slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. We’ll go over a few bets I like to sweat along with.

Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians

The Pick: Grayson Rodriguez over 17.5 outs recorded -120

Over 17.5 outs recorded has been a number that Rodriguez has been consistently going over during his second stint up in the majors. After being recalled on July 17th, Rodriguez has gone at least six innings in seven of his 11 starts, including six of his last seven. The only team he didn’t go over was when he logged 4.1 innings against the Red Sox, thanks in part to some shoddy defense behind him. Tonight, he’ll go against a Guardians team that makes a lot of contact and doesn’t strikeout much. The combined 18.6% K% against righties is one of the lowest in the league and should work in our favor. This can help keep the pitch count down for Rodriguez, thus allowing us to stay in this game for as long as possible.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

The Pick: Total Runs - 1st 5 innings under 3.5 -110

We have a good pitching matchup on tap for tonight as Jose Berrios takes on Gerrit Cole. This Yankees offense continues to flounder, averaging just 3.4 runs over their last five games. To take that a step further, they’ve scored just four total runs over their last three games, two of which came against the Blue Jays. The Yankees offense has been so bad for the month of September, they currently rank 27th in the league in runs scored, averaging just 3.8 through 18 games.

As for the Blue Jays, not only do they have to face Cole but they’ll likely be without Vlad Guerrero Jr. He was scratched yesterday with knee soreness and it’s enough for the Jays to send him for an MRI. He leaves a big hole in the heart of this lineup that suddenly doesn’t look very intimidating. It’s been a while since the Jays faced Cole, as they did so twice earlier in the year. Those starts did not go well for the Jays, who were shutout both times for a span of 11.2 innings.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

The Pick: Alec Bohm over 1.5 bases +120

Bohm has been a fiend against left-handed pitching and that’s what he’ll face tonight. David Peterson is expected to take the mound for the Mets tonight and brings with him some really poor numbers against righties. On the year, Peterson sports a .365 wOBA with a 4.40 FIP and 10 of the 15 home runs he’s allowed. He’s really struggled early in games as well, as the first time through the order, Peterson has a 5.21 ERA with a .407 wOBA and nine home runs allowed. As for Bohm, he’s hit for a lot of power against lefties with a .265 ISO. The rest of his numbers are good as well, highlighted by a .380 wOBA and a 140 wRC+.

Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.