NFL Week 3 kicks off with the Giants, coming off their miraculous victory in Arizona, staying on the road in the NFC West and heading to San Francisco.
Let’s break down the betting market on this game, along with some best bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This week is a really tough board in the NFL with some massive favorites. Most of you are familiar with the common 6-point/2-team teaser in the NFL, but I’m going to something I rarely use — the 10-point/3-team teaser. It just feels like that kind of week.
We’ll get things going on Thursday night with the Niners to win this game at a pick’em. Obviously, San Francisco has looked dominant through two games, and now they’re in a pretty strong spot in the home opener. Despite a short week off two road games, the Giants are also on a west coast road trip, following a wild comeback on Sunday in Arizona. While that was a high for the G-men, it puts them in a pretty down spot on the short week on the road against much stiffer competition ... not to mention without their top offensive weapon (Saquon Barkley suffered an ankle injury).
To close out the teaser in the late window on Sunday, we have a couple of massive favorites. The Cowboys will now get their crack at the lowly Cardinals, and I don’t expect it to go well. The Cowboys have outscored the Giants and Jets 70-10 so far this season, and I don’t expect Arizona to be much tougher. After losing the opener, the Chiefs got back on track in Week 2 in Jacksonville. Now their back home against a Bears team that’s been just dreadful on both sides of the ball. Perfect spot for Kansas City to cruise and start making up some ground.
I’ll likely just be sticking with the Niners as a teaser leg for my only wager in this game. If I bet anything else, it would be a SF rushing prop. I wrote up the McCaffrey prop on Wednesday and am adding the Mitchell prop on Thursday. If you’re betting rushing props, I’d pick ONE of them and not play both since they work against each other. Obviously, adding Mitchell on Thursday, I probably feel better about that one between the two. Good luck.
McCaffrey has been dominating the backfield touches for the Niners thus far, and with good reason. Through the first two games in Pittsburgh and Los Angeles, CMC has racked up a 22-152-1 line, followed by a 20-116-1 line.
Now the game script sets up perfectly for the 49ers running game. San Fran enters its home opener as a double-digit favorite against a Giants team that ranks 26th against the run in the early going — allowing 136.5 rushing yards per game.
With a rushing prop priced at 79.5 and -130 juice to the over, I’d much rather look to an alternate line and almost double our money.
You can read the analysis above and see that CMC has really been carrying the load. So much so that Kyle Shanahan has already come out and said they need to balance the workload better and get Mitchell more involved.
Through two weeks, McCaffrey has out-snapped Mitchell 115-10. Mitchell didn’t see the field last week after getting all 10 snaps in a Week 1 blowout of the Steelers, carrying five times for just 10 yards.
But given Shanahan’s statement, the short week, and the blowout potential, it feels like there’s a good chance we see a lot more Mitchell in this game than we have so far this season. If you can rest CMC up a couple touchdowns in the second half, he wouldn’t have to play again until October.
So for all the reasons I like CMC in this game, I also like Mitchell to go over a low total by getting worked into the rotation more, and then finishing the game out if the script holds.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.