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We only have a couple of weeks left of the regular season (how did this happen already)! As teams start to look ahead toward the playoffs (or the offseason), we’ll go over some plays for tonight.
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Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Rangers run line -1.5 +124
This Red Sox team seems like they’ve simply given up. In another lost season that just saw the firing of their Chief Baseball Office in Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox seem like they have nothing to play for. They come into this series against the Rangers four in a row and are now 2-8 over their last 10 games. As if that wasn’t bad enough, the Blue Jays just walked them off two days in a row, adding insult to injury.
Kutter Crawford is expected to get the start tonight for the Sox. He’s not someone who is going to give the Sox a lot of innings and sine the second-half of the season began, has only gone at least six innings twice. In fact, he’s gone no more than 4.2 innings in three straight games. Despite their struggles lately, the Rangers are still putting up good offensive numbers. Even against the Guardians, who were able to moderately silence their bats, the Rangers are averaging five runs per game over that span. The Sox bullpen was mostly spared on Sunday, using all three relievers, but it’s not been their strong point. I think the Rangers start to pick it back up offensively against Crawford, as they have a combined .363 wOBA against righties.
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Game Total over 8.5 runs -118
It’s been a weird stretch of baseball for Justin Verlander lately. He was a bit shaky when he first was acquired by the Astros but ended the month with 11 shutout innings against the Tigers and Red Sox. When the calendar flipped to September, things started to get dicey. In three starts, he’s allowed 12 runs on 20 hits, including SEVEN home runs, giving him a 5.40 ERA with a .345 wOBA in the month. It’s hard to say what the issue is with Verlander currently, as his velocity is on point with his season average. Nonetheless, this game against a good Orioles offense is worrisome (unless you’re taking the over).
John Means will be pitching for the Orioles, making just his second start of the season. As a lefty, it’s not an easy matchup against the Astros. Tonight’s projected lineup against Means has a combined .371 wOBA, a .210 ISO and just a 18% K% against lefties. Means is mainly a fastball and changeup pitcher, which are two pitches this lineup crushes. Combined against the fastball they have combined .356 wOBA and a change it jumps to a .404 wOBA. This sounds like a good high scoring game to me.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 runs -120
This Phillies have the benefit of facing Kyle Wright tonight. Through six starts, the Braves starter has a 7.48 ERA with an xERA of 5.60 and a 4.41 FIP. His strikeout numbers are good but he’s putting a lot of traffic on base with a 4.9 BB/9. Throwing the fastball almost half the time, this lineup crushes that pitch with a wOBA of .355 for tonight projected starters. The real issue for Wright has been lefties, who has tagged him with a .463 wOBA and a 8.71 FIP. Naturally, with a lineup that includes Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper has two of the first three men he’ll face, this could get ugly quick.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.