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Wednesday features a number of MLB games scattered all throughout the day. I’ll give some bets I like for tonight that you can sweat along with.
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Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
The Pick: Athletics moneyline through first five innings +180
I believe this is only the second time this season I gave a bet in SUPPORT of the Athletics. We have to be reallllll picky about when to back them (which is usually never) but I think we might be onto something tonight.
I’m honestly surprised the Astros continue to start Hunter Brown. In his last start against the Padres, he was shelled for six runs on six hits through 4.1 innings. His fastball velocity was down 1.1 mph over his yearly average and he simply looked like he didn’t have it. But it wasn’t just that start, it’s looked that way now for over a month. He ended the month of August with a 6.23 ERA, a .390 wOBA against and five home runs allowed. In September through 8.1 innings, a 9.72 ERA with a .409 wOBA and two home runs. Is he simply out of gas? Would be be better suited in the bullpen? I don’t make that call but I will back the A’s through the first five innings. Brown has only made it through five innings once in his last five starts. If he fails to once again complete five, there’s a very good chance it’s because the A’s are casing this bet.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins
The Pick: William Contreras over 1.5 H/R/RBI -115
I love this prop. Contreras will be facing Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett, who primarily throws a sinker. This season, he’s done so 34% of the time. Contreras has absolutely crushed this pitch when thrown by a lefty. Since last season, he boasts a massive .539 wOBA with a .273 ISO and only a 9.3% K%. If we look at his numbers against the slider by a lefty, which Garrett throws 25% of the time, Contreras is just as good with a .494 wOBA and a .409 ISO. So, getting Contreras to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI at -115 is extremely appealing. Garrett has seen a significant dip in his strikeout numbers in the second half, dropping from a 9.8 K/9 to just a 6.8 K/9. With all this added contact, give me the over on this prop.
Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers
The Pick: Connor Phillips over 5.5 strikeouts -110
We’re getting to that point of the season where you’re going to see a lot of names taking the mound you’re not familiar with. Phillips is likely one of those names but he’s someone you should get to know. His strikeout numbers in the minors were absurd and the Reds are hoping he can translate that at the major league level. In 2023, he made two stops in AA and AAA before being called up. In AA he tossed 64.2 innings and had a 15.4 K/9. That is not a typo. In AAA, it dropped to 9.6 through 40.1, but, he still averaged over a strikeout per inning. Aside from AAA, he struck out at least 11.8 per nine innings at every level. Now, he’ll get a Tigers team that LOVES to strikeout.
Tonight’s projected lineup has a combined 25.6% K% against righties. In fact, only one player, Miguel Cabrera, has a K% below 20%. The rest of the lineup is at 23% of higher against righties this season. While we’ve only seen Phillips make one start for the Reds, he struck out seven against Seattle through 4.2 innings. They did do some damage to him by tagging him for five runs but he easily went over the number we need tonight. At -110, it’s a worthy bet.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.