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Under 8.5 Total Runs: MIA Marlins @ WAS Nationals
Garion’s analysis: I don’t want to simplify things too much, but these two teams both played on Wednesday and they combined to score zero runs across 19 innings (the Marlins’ game went to extras). If you’re looking for a microcosm of what the past two weeks have been, you’re probably not going to find a more obvious one. In that span, Miami is hitting .211 with a 69 wRC+ that is the third-lowest mark in baseball. They’re also currently without the services of Jorge Soler (hip), who leads the team in home runs (35), RBI (71) and expected wOBA (.371). As for the Nationals, their .113 ISO and 5.5% walk rate are the NL’s worst-marks the past 14 days. It’s pretty difficult to score runs in bunches without any power or the ability to get on base consistently.
However, this isn’t just about ice cold lineups. Braxton Garrett also deserves his flowers. The 26-year-old LHP has been quite good in 2023, registering a 3.67 FIP across 134.0 innings of work. Garrett’s been particularly amazing when getting the opportunity to pitch on the road this season, sporting a 2.86 ERA and a 2.82 FIP in the 12 starts he’s made within the split. That includes six frames of one-run ball back in mid-June against this same Washington squad. Again, this play is mostly about ineffective bats on both sides, but the presence of Garrett certainly doesn’t hurt.
Michael Harris Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs: ATL Braves @ LA Dodgers
Garion’s analysis: The insane thing about the Braves is that they get to place a hitter as good as Harris in the nine-hole each and every night. While the reigning NL Rookie of the Year started 2023 a little slowly — injuries didn’t help — Harris has been on absolute fire since the beginning of June, slashing .335/.366/.529 over 296 plate appearances. Yeah. Atlanta’s nine-hitter is batting .336 with a .913 OPS against RHPs the last three months. What a luxury.
Harris’ matchup on Thursday is Lance Lynn. Admittedly, Lynn has been much better since getting into Los Angeles’ pitching lab, rocking a 2.03 ERA in his five starts since the trade deadline. Still, for the season as a whole, LHBs have given the veteran fits. In fact, opposing left-handed bats are hitting .313 off Lynn with a .398 wOBA. The 36-year-old has surrendered an eye-popping 2.49 home runs per nine within the split. Harris might not be able to add to that long ball total, but he doesn’t have to with this prop. He could hit the over with a single base knock, then scoring as he turns the Braves’ dangerous lineup over. It’s just that easy.
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DraftKings promoters may sometimes play on personal accounts in the games that advice is offered on. Personal views on the games and strategies above do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. DraftKings promoters may also deploy different players and strategies than what is recommended above. DraftKings promoters do not have access to any non-public information.