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MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Nick Friar provides MLB betting trends along with his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for August 23.

MLB: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Thanks to the new Systems tab on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, two plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Total over 8 runs

This number is very much understandable when you first look at the pitchers who are expected to start this matchup. Also, neither of these lineups have produced much power over the last month against right-handed pitchers.

However, Kevin Gausman is coming off his worst outing of the season, having surrendered seven runs (five earned) vs. Philadelphia last time out. He also got his first look at the O’s earlier in the month, and they scored three runs against him over just 4 1/3.

In looking at systems in play, the over is 25-7 throughout the last seven days when the home team is playing as an underdog. Additionally, the over is 22-16-1 when the O’s are facing a divisional opponent. In that same setting, the over is 19-15-1 for the Jays.

More importantly, the over is 14-3 when Toronto is playing a divisional opponent after seeing the over hit in the previous contest.

Orioles +110

The Orioles have been one of the most profitable divisional dogs this season — despite having lost Tuesday’s contest against the favored Blue Jays. Following that loss, Baltimore is 20-11 as a divisional underdog this season. Additionally, the Jays have been one of the worst divisional favorites this season. Tuesday’s 6-3 win puts them at just 4-18 when playing as the favorite against an AL East opponent.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

Total over 9.5 runs

This Mets lineup is very familiar with Charlie Morton, which plays into the offense’s favor — despite last meeting’s outcome. The right-hander has given up four runs in two of his three outings vs. New York this season. Morton shut out the Mets over five frames last time out, and he followed that up with six scoreless vs. the Yankees. He’s been cooking, but that also means he’s due for some regression.

On the other side, Jose Quintana has been a great addition for the messy Mets. He’s logged a quality start in five of his six outings for New York, with the one exception being a two-run, five-inning outing. But, the Braves are one of the toughest lineups for left-handed pitchers to navigate, and he did see them recently. Hard to imagine he shuts them down again.

From a system standpoint, when favorites are coming off a win, the over has hit 56% of the time over the last seven days (28-22). But, what’s more notable: The over is 12-3 when the Braves are playing a divisional opponent after the under hit.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.