Football is upon us, and it’s time to start cranking out some plays in the futures markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook. I haven’t put out any win total plays yet in the NFL, so this will be my first.
Denver Broncos OVER 8.5 Wins (-110) — 1.5-units
Denver Broncos OVER 7.5 Wins (-160) — 1.5-units
While I do have a few different type of division bets on teams like the 49ers, Saints and Raiders, I’m only going to be placing one NFL win total bet this season. That said, I’m going to double dip with an over on the standard win total and a lower alternate total, simply because I feel it’s too cheap.
The Broncos were a laughing stock last season, finishing at 5-12 in Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver. Of course, coaching decisions by Nathaniel Hackett very publicly cost the team a handful of potential chances to win more games. Denver went 4-9 in one-score games, and five of their losses were by three or fewer points. In short, there were a lot of coin flip games that went against them that could’ve significantly improved their record, and poor coaching played a large role in being on the wrong side of a lot of those games.
The defense was already elite, and should remain top tier. But I’m counting on the offense to be able to take the next step this season. While I do feel Sean Payton is a bit overrated, swapping him in as the decision maker should make an immediate impact in winning more games.
Even with tough division games against the Chiefs and Chargers, there should also be a couple of wins against the Raiders on the first and last games of the season. By finishing last in the division in 2022, Denver does set itself up with a much easier schedule for 2023. The Broncos are favored in 10 games this season, and get to face the likes of Washington, Chicago, Green Bay, Houston and New England — all of which have win totals of 7.5 or less.
If the Broncos can take care of those five teams, plus the two matchups with Las Vegas, they’d be at seven wins right there. But I expect this team to be competing for a playoff spot, with double-digit wins a real possibility. Given the talent in the AFC, I’m not going to chase the plus-money on betting them to ultimately reach the postseason. But I do feel the win total is set too low, and the 50-cents it costs to play the ALT at 7.5 is worth a bet too.
Denver opens the season in a very favorable situation, with two home games against Las Vegas and Washington. After that, the Broncos travel for a tough game in Miami, but then turn around and go to Chicago before hosting an interesting matchup against the Jets and their former head coach. If Denver can win that one (or surprise us in Miami), I think there’s a realistic shot of a 4-1 start to the season.
All the hype might have just been a year early on this team. Despite falling flat on its face in 2022, there are a lot of reasons to believe in a turnaround this year. I backed Jerry Jeudy on his receiving prop (a number that’s on the rise since a couple WR went down in camp), and feel that under Payton, he can be a huge reason why this offense takes steps it was unable to last season.
While Denver might not be the Super Bowl contender we hyped it to be after the Wilson deal, this squad has all the makings of a team that should finish over .500, even in a division like the AFC West.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.