Thanks to the new Systems tab on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, two plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Jesus Luzardo has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, yet Miami is just a small dog against a tough Houston lineup and Justin Verlander. Perhaps it’s because there are a few key systems at play for the Marlins in this one.
National League teams playing at home in interleague contests have won 58.57% of the time over the last 30 days. On the season, Miami is 4-3 at home as an interleague underdog and 15-14 overall as an interleague dog. But the system that has my attention above all else is centered around Houston.
While favorites playing after a win in which the over hit have a winning percentage above 57% on the season, the Astros have not helped contribute to this number. They’re 12-17 in this setting. Moreover, they’re 3-8 in this setting when playing on the road.
Toronto is expected to play host to a pitchers’ duel with Aaon Nola and Kevin Gausman on the bump. While both starters are coming off strong outings, Nola benefitted from playing the Nationals last time out. Prior to that outing, he’d been struggling. In the five starts before his gem vs. Washington, Nola had posted a 5.64 ERA and 4.92 FIP.
Gausman also struggled in one of his two starts this month, but he occasionally has blips on the radar. Even with his recent rough outing, the right-hander has a 3.15 ERA and 3.30 FIP since the start of July.
On top of Nola’s recent struggles, the systems at play are what give Toronto the edge going into this game. American League teams playing at home against NL teams are 37-24 over the last 30 days. On the season, AL interleague favorites have won 57.7% of the time. In the latter setting, the Jays are 15-7.
More importantly, the Phillies are 1-7 when playing as an underdog after a loss in which the under hit. Whereas, the Blue Jays are 22-10 as a favorite after a win in which the under hit (and favorites have won 59.2% of the time in this setting this season).
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.