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UFC 292 Best Bets Today: Top UFC Picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for UFC 292

Tim Finnegan gives his top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for UFC 292.

UFC 292 is taking place on Saturday from Boston, Massachusetts, and the main event is a bantamweight title bout between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley. A win for Sterling would give him five title-fight wins at bantamweight, which would be tied for the most in UFC bantamweight history.

UFC 292 also has a solid main card underneath the main event. The co-main event is a women’s strawweight title bout between Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos. Rising Irish welterweight Ian Machado Garry is also on the main card against late-replacement Neil Magny after Garry’s original opponent, Geoff Neal, was forced to withdraw last week.

At last week’s UFC event, a DraftKings Sportsbook bettor had a huge win, turning just $50 into nearly $40,000 with a UFC Parlay Bet. The bettor placed a $50 Parlay Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook featuring the following 13 UFC Moneyline picks at +76819 odds:

  • AJ Dobson (+120)
  • Cub Swanson (+185)
  • Da’Mon Blackshear (-290)
  • Isaac Dulgarian (+142)
  • Marcus McGhee (-355)
  • Jaqueline Amorim (-250)
  • Josh Fremd (-355)
  • Martin Buday (-198)
  • Luana Santos (-148)
  • Khalil Rountree Jr. (-175)
  • Iasmin Lucindo (-192)
  • Terrance McKinney (-278)
  • Vicente Luque (+100)

As a result of all of these outcomes hitting in the Parlay Bet, the bettor took home $38,459.88.

DraftKings is hosting a big fantasy UFC 292 tournament that pays out $750,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Enter the contest for only $25 here.

UFC 292 Same Game Parlay (SGP) Pick

Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley

Aljamain Sterling Moneyline (3 Way)

Over 2.5 Total Rounds

1+ Aljamain Sterling Total Takedowns - Round 1

SGP odds: +200

($100 bet pays out $300)

There was a time not long ago when some did not consider Aljamain Sterling to be the true bantamweight champion due to the circumstances surrounding his title fight win over Petr Yan. Sterling was behind in the fight when Yan landed an illegal strike in Round 4, which resulted in a DQ win for Sterling. Sterling has silenced his critics since then, beating Yan in an immediate rematch and then stringing together two wins over former bantamweight champions TJ Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo. Sterling has now put himself in the conversation for the best bantamweight in UFC history, and a win at UFC 292 would tie him for the most UFC title fight wins in the history of the division.

Sean O’Malley is one of the biggest volume strikers in the UFC, landing over seven significant strikes per minute, sixth-most among all active UFC fighters. O’Malley’s striking differential is also one of the best in the UFC, landing about four more significant strikes per minute than he has absorbed, eighth-best among all active UFC fighters. Most of O’Malley’s striking takes place at distance, and distance striking is where O’Malley’s A game is. O’Malley is excellent at hiding his strikes behind feints to create openings, and he is comfortable switching stances, fighting from both southpaw and orthodox looks. For O’Malley to have a good chance to win this fight, he will have to keep his range and fight from the outside. Taking the center of the octagon and maintaining strong ringcraft to avoid getting pressured into the fence will be critical for maintaining distance.

Sterling enters this matchup with several advantages over O’Malley. Sterling is a better wrestler, and if he can use his wrestling to fight inside, he can diminish O’Malley’s distance striking. Sterling has attempted 62 total takedowns over his last four fights, an average of about 15 takedown attempts per fight. This was most notable during his most recent fight against Henry Cejudo, who is an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. Sterling not only held his own in the wrestling department against Cejudo, he recorded more takedowns in the fight, logging four takedowns compared to Cejudo’s three takedowns. O’Malley has also been susceptible to takedowns at times, which was on display in his most recent fight vs. Petr Yan. Yan recorded six takedowns on O’Malley and completed several takedowns along the fence.

Sterling has recorded the most control time in the history of the UFC bantamweight division and has recorded the third-most top position time. Sterling has excellent back control, which was primarily on display in his second win over Petr Yan. Sterling’s back control gives him a weapon when opponents try to keep their back off the mat to avoid getting stuck in bottom position. O’Malley did this several times in his fight against Yan, and giving Sterling back exposure could result in Sterling riding O’Malley like a backpack.

By using wrestling and close-distance fighting, Sterling can inhibit a lot of O’Malley’s excellent distance striking game, which would force O’Malley into a fight that is not best suited for him. This would also create opportunities for takedown volume for Sterling and allow him to decrease the amount of striking volume O’Malley is able to land. Sterling has recorded more significant strikes than his opponent in eight of his last nine fights and has inhibited opponent significant strikes very well, absorbing just over two significant strikes per minute. Sterling’s strikes landed to absorbed ratio is also better than 2 to 1, which is comparable to O’Malley’s on a time-adjusted basis.

Taking the fight to go over 2.5 rounds is also appealing. While O’Malley’s takedown defense is vulnerable in this matchup, his defensive jiu jitsu is capable, which could allow him to survive submission attempts on the ground early in the fight. Sterling is also not a huge finisher—nine of Sterling’s last 13 fights have gone the distance, excluding his DQ win over Petr Yan.

To place a UFC Same Game Parlay (SGP):

  1. Find a fight that has the SGP icon in the left corner.
  2. Click the SGP icon. Once you click the SGP icon, all available bets will appear.
  3. Build your Same Game Parlay. Combine multiple bets from one fight. The more bets you combine, the more you can win.
  4. Place your parlay. Add your Same Game Parlay to your bet slip, enter your wager amount, and submit your bet.

Learn more about SGPs at the DraftKings Sportsbook SGP page!

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.