TGFFB. Thank goodness for Friday bets. I came up with that all on my own and am currently pursuing legal action against a certain family restaurant chain. We’ve got all 30 teams taking the field this evening, which means a big night on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are three of my favorite wagers on the diamond.
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Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
First 3 Innings: Under 2.5 Runs (+100)
We’ve got a pair of imposing lefties taking the mound tonight in Boston. Tarik Skubal will be making his seventh start in an injury-shortened campaign, while Chris Sale will be enjoying his first MLB appearance since all the way back on June 1. According to Alex Cora, Sale will be limited to just four innings in his return, which is why I prefer focusing our attention on the first three frames of this tilt, as opposed to the normal game total. It was a poorly timed ailment for Sale, as the veteran had really been finding his groove. To wit, Sale posted a 2.25 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in the six outings prior to his absence, with an eye-popping 10.3 K/BB ratio. He’s still got the juice. Even at 34-years-old.
Meanwhile, Skubal has basically been the best pitcher in baseball in the six starts he has made in 2023 — at least by the advanced metrics. Thanks to a 31.1% strikeout rate, an 8.25 K/BB ratio and the fact he’s yet to surrender a long ball, Skubal’s posted a 2.30 xERA and a 1.37 FIP in his 27.0 innings of work. In layman’s terms, he’s been an ace. I’d expect that success to continue in this matchup with the Red Sox. Not only is Boston extremely left-handed, playing right into Skubal’s splits, but the Red Sox have been scuffling with the bats the last couple of weeks. Boston owns a 73 wRC+ the past 14 days. That’s the fifth-worst mark in baseball.
Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Parlay: Phillies ML + Braves ML (+151)
While I assure you that most of the betting advice I give out in this article is well researched and very thought out, sometimes you just have to shoot from the hip. The through-line of this parlay is gas can pitchers who probably shouldn’t still be cashing MLB paychecks: Tylor Megill and Dallas Keuchel.
Megill’s season has been a disaster. The RHP was coming off a respectable part-time showing in 2022, posting a 3.77 FIP in 47.2 innings with the Mets, but the wheels have fallen off in 2023. Megill’s pitched to an inflated 6.37 xERA across 16 painful starts with New York and his results have somehow been worse in Triple-A. Megill owns an 8.67 ERA with Syracuse.
As for Keuchel, the former Cy Young Award winner looked to be headed towards retirement after a 9.20 ERA in 14 outings last year, but the lefty fought his way back to the big leagues in Minnesota’s organization. Technically, his first start with the Twins went well, as Keuchel surrendered just a single earned run over five frames, yet it doesn’t take too much digging to start seeing the cracks in the foundation. Arizona had eight hits and a pair of walks in that contest, while Keuchel didn’t register a strikeout. The man is a ticking time bomb.
St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals
MJ Melendez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Speaking of washed up starting pitchers, let’s discuss the husk of Adam Wainwright. While the veteran’s numbers are terrible any way you slice them up, Wainwright has been especially bad in his last six trips to the mound. In that span of time, Wainwright has posted a 12.27 ERA and a seemingly impossible 2.59 WHIP. Wainwright’s faced 48 left-handed batters in this stretch, and those men have combined to slash .436/.521/.821 with four home runs. This isn’t out of nowhere, either. LHBs have registered a .483 wOBA off of Wainwright for 2023 as a whole.
That’s where the left-handed Melendez comes into the equation. Like a few of his teammates, the former second-round pick has been red-hot since the All-Star break, hitting .280 with a 133 wRC+. Heck, Melendez has as many long balls in his last 101 plate appearances (6) as he did in his first 346 PAs of the season. With Wainwright essentially throwing batting practice, I’m expecting another big night at the dish from Melendez.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.