Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
With the series even at 1-1, the Phillies find themselves in a favorable scenario. Home favorites that are coming off a win in which the under hit have won 61.7% of the time this season. Better yet, National League teams playing as interleague favorites in this scenario have won 67.6% of the time.
Philly will turn to Ranger Suarez, who has had a July to forget. The left-hander had been rolling throughout June following a rough, delayed start to his 2023, posting a 3.18 ERA and 3.03 FIP through his first nine starts of the season. But, both numbers have ballooned this month.
That said, Suarez’s season-long 3.84 FIP indicates he’s due to bring his 4.07 ERA down a bit. The Orioles may not seem like the team to help his numbers when looking at their .229 July ISO against lefties — or their 39.5% hard-contact rate. However, Baltimore has somehow managed a .327 BABIP against lefties throughout July despite posting a 46.5% ground-ball rate. Suarez generates a lot of ground balls, and he’s also been a bit unlucky, rocking a .357 BABIP after 22 July innings. Regression is in order.
Similar to the Phillies, there are a few systems at play that bode well for the Cubs Wednesday. NL teams playing as interleague road favorites have won 65.8% of the time this season. The Cubs are 4-0 in that setting, and the White Sox are 0-4 when playing as interleague home dogs. The Cubs are also 9-4 when they’re favored after a win in which the over hit. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 4-8 as underdogs following a loss in which the over hit.
As for the matchup on the mound, Marcus Stroman is undoubtedly having his worst month of the season. But, the White Sox have the lowest July ISO (.120) against right-handed pitching. There’s also nothing about their ancillary numbers that gives reason to believe this won’t be a get-right start for Stroman, similar to his recent outing vs. Boston.
Lance Lynn is the real wild card here. He could easily have his fifth double-digit-strikeout performance of the season. Just as easily, he could get rocked. And what’s more, even if he racks up 10-plus punchouts on Wednesday, that’s not a guarantee the White Sox will win. They’re 8-12 in his starts this season and 0-4 when Lynn has struck out 10-plus.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.