It’s rivalry week in MLB. Most teams will be taking on one of their most hated foes on Tuesday, so there are plenty of interesting matchups to dive into. All 30 teams will be in action, with all 15 games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox:
The Pick: Cubs ML (-115)
That said, there has clearly been an element of bad luck for the Cubs. They actually have a run differential of +41, which is tied for the ninth-best mark in baseball. It’s the same exact figure as the Red Sox, who are six games above .500. Overall, the Cubs have a Pythagorean record of 54-45, which would make them a potential playoff team in the National League.
If the Cubs can start playing up to their peripherals, they should be able to take care of business tonight. The White Sox offense has been an abomination this season, ranking just 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Kyle Hendricks isn’t a world-beater, but he’s capable of getting outs: He owns a 3.38 ERA and a 3.86 xERA across 64 innings.
Meanwhile, the White Sox will hand the ball to Michael Kopech. Kopech can rack up strikeouts, but that hasn’t translated to a ton of success. He owns a 5.42 xERA and 5.89 FIP, and the Cubs’ offense has a bit more upside than the White Sox. Even with the Cubs on the road, this feels like a good number.
New York Mets at New York Yankees:
The Pick: Mets ML (-120)
Our second interstate battle features the Mets and the Yankees, another two squads that have failed to live up to expectations. The Mets have been far worse this season, but the Yankees are at the bottom of a very tough AL East. The Yankees’ lineup has also tanked with Aaron Judge unavailable, ranking 19th in runs per game for the year.
Justin Verlander has not been nearly as dominant in his first year in New York as he has in the past, but he should be able to carve through this Yankees lineup. His 3.47 ERA and 3.39 xERA still make him an above-average pitcher, and Verlander’s numbers are inflated by a few subpar outings. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in nine of 14 starts, including eight innings of one-run ball in his last outing.
The Yankees will turn to Domingo German, who threw the first perfect game since Felix Hernandez in 2012 earlier this season. However, his numbers for the year are still underwhelming. He was also unimpressive in his first start out of the break, allowing five earned runs across six innings vs. a subpar Angels squad.
It’s very hard to get excited about the Mets and Verlander at this point, but like the Cubs, I think they’re underpriced in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers:
The Pick: Under 8 (-110)
This may not be an interstate rivalry, but it’s arguably the most important game on the docket. These two teams are separated by 1.5 games in the standings, with the Brewers currently holding the NL Central division lead.
Both of these teams will send their top arms to the mound in this crucial matchup. That’s Corbin Burnes for the Brewers. Burnes hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual this season, but his 3.49 ERA and 3.34 xERA are still excellent. He’s also been basically unhittable since the All-Star break, pitching 14 scoreless innings against the Reds and Phillies. That includes six scoreless in Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.
Andrew Abbott will get the ball for the Reds. He doesn’t have nearly the same track record of success as Burnes, but he’s made an immediate impact in his first MLB season. He’s pitched to a 2.10 ERA across his first nine starts, and while he’s definitely benefitted from some good luck, he has the talent to excel in the majors. He entered the league as a top 100 prospect per FanGraphs, and he’s been very successful in the minor leagues.
Ultimately, runs figure to be at a premium in this contest. I think you can play the Brewers at -145, but I’d rather pay less juice and target the under.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.