The Midsummer Classic is upon us, with the National League squaring off with the American League in Seattle. We had an appetizer with Vlad Guerrero Jr. winning the Home Run Derby on Monday, but most of baseball’s top stars will take the field on Tuesday.
The AL holds a slight edge in the contest overall, going 47-43-2 since the inaugural contest in 1933. They’ve also been dominant of late, winning the event in nine straight years. They also had a 13-year unbeaten streak from 1997 through 2009, so they’re 21-3-1 in the past 25 contests.
Can the NL finally get back on the board? Let’s dive into how I’m approaching this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook.
National League at American League:
The Pick: National League Moneyline (-110)
Despite the AL’s recent dominance, the NL enters this contest in far better shape. The AL has seen a bunch of their top players go down with injuries of late, losing Aaron Judge and Mike Trout from the starting lineup and Yordan Alvarez from their reserves. They’re also going to be missing three of their top pitchers: Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez, and Emmanuel Clase.
Meanwhile, the NL has virtually their entire offense intact. All nine of their elected starters will play, while Dansby Swanson is their only injured reserve. Things aren’t quite as good on the pitching side — especially with the absence of Spencer Strider, but they still have plenty of quality arms to choose from. Particularly, Alexis Diaz, Josh Hader, and Camilo Doval are as nasty a trio of relievers as you’ll find in baseball.
Eventually, things are going to turn around for the NL in this matchup. Why not 2023? The sharps have also shown plenty of love for the National League, who have received 88% of the dollars on just 57% of the bets.
The Pick: Under 7.5 runs (-120)
Pitching has been the name of the game in the Midsummer Classic of late. Five of the past six contests have featured seven runs or fewer. That includes a game in Coors Field and another that went to extra innings.
The pitching in this year’s contest might be a bit less inspiring than in previous years, but the injuries to the AL’s offense should help. Gerrit Cole and Zac Gallen will get the ball to start the game for their respective teams, and they’ve both been extremely effective this season.
Additionally, this game being played at T-Mobile Park should help keep runs off the board. According to Statcast Park Factors, T-Mobile Park has been the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball over the past three seasons.
The under is another wager that the sharps are all over, pushing this total down to 7.0 at some locations. I’d grab it at 7.5 while you still have a chance.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.