Here’s my favorite bet available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
Jamal Murray over 7.5 assists -120
If there’s one area in which Murray has been consistent this series, it’s his facilitating. After logging just six double-digit assist performances in the regular season and none before the NBA Finals, Murray has three in a row vs. the Heat.
Now, it would stand to reason he’s due for regression. But as everyone knows, regular season numbers don’t carry much weight in the playoffs. What matters most here is what we’ve seen.
Miami has managed to shut down Denver’s perimeter offense through the first three games. Murray has still gotten his in two of the three games, but one thing Miami simply cannot do is stop Denver’s point guard from connecting with Nikola Jokic. The two have assisted one another 27 times throughout this series, creating constant headaches for Miami with their two-man game. Slowing that element of the game down has to be a priority for the Heat, but they don’t have the personnel to do so.
Also, Murray appeared to suffer a hand injury last game. He still found ways to score, which shouldn’t change. However, if he can’t get a good feel for his shot because of the hand, Murray could play more of a facilitator role. Not something that’s required to have this play come through, but a development that could force him to alter his game in a way that makes this over easier to hit.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.